I am writing to respond to the Nov. 11 editorial in favor of a new mall. You can’t get blood out of a turnip nor taxes out of a developer’s promise. The editorial board stated the low estimate of sales at a new mall might be $75 million (according to Dr. Ken Stone) and the high end might be as much as $327 million (according to developer Bucky Wolford).

The $75 million would represent more than a 12 percent jump in area trade levels from the 2004 level. The $375 million would represent almost a 55 percent increase in total trade in the region. You then allude to the potential increase in sales taxes.

Here’s the problem with your conclusions: These numbers do not represent net growth in Ames area sales; they represent the gross sales of the project, a range of from $75 million to $327 million. The key to an increase in local sales tax collections is an increase in net sales in the region after we take into account the inevitable shift in sales from existing stores in the community to the new stores.

If there’s no net new sales, there’s no net new taxes. And, to my knowledge, no one has produced a credible statement on the expected net increase in regional sales, indeed if any, that this enterprise will produce.

Dave Swenson

Assistant Scientist

Economics