Martin: Careful Iowa State, don’t get too cute against Kansas

Iowa State linebacker Mike Rose tries to bring down Oklahoma State’s Jelani Woods during the Cyclones and Cowboys game Saturday in Stillwater, Oklahoma.

Zach Martin

Remember when this annual game between Iowa State and Kansas was always a laughing stock?

Whoever lost this contest would likely end up finishing dead last in the Big 12. For the winner, it was one of the few times celebration was needed, since the feeling of being victorious came at a premium.

One program is turning those dark times into semi-bright rays of sunshine. The other is still sifting through the clouds trying to find a spec of light.

While the 24th-ranked Cyclones are a ginormous favorite against the pitiful Jayhawks at 11 a.m. Saturday, I wouldn’t be overly optimistic this game will turn into a 50-point blowout.

Why?

Well, because Iowa State is Iowa State.

It is notorious for getting in its own way. I feel it’s pointless to go over example after example because this column would be over 1,500 words. No one wants that.

It would be the most Iowa State thing ever, in the fourth year under Matt Campbell, to lose to Kansas, who just lost its best player in Pooka Williams because he opted out due to COVID-19.

Lose on the road to a top-6 team in Oklahoma State? Acceptable. Fall to the Jayhawks the following week? Oh, boy, I wouldn’t even want to be a student manager on that team.

Everyone in Ames will immediately call for Campbell’s firing and turn on quarterback Brock Purdy in an instant, and the season will turn into a wash.

“From game one to where they are today, you can tell the growth and the credit of growth has to go to the senior leadership,” Campbell said. “You see a young, impressive team that’s coming.”

Am I saying Iowa State will lose? Of course not. It should beat Kansas. Am I saying this game could be closer than the experts think? Yes.

It’s a fact the Cyclones defense struggled against Spencer Sanders last week, a mobile quarterback who did just as much damage with his legs as he did with his arm. When TCU’s Max Duggan took over in the second half, he nearly led the Horned Frogs to victory.

Same can be said with Louisiana’s Levi Lewis, except he actually did win. 

That front seven and secondary, for some reason beyond me, can’t seem to stop a dual-threat quarterback. The Jayhawks have one at their disposal in true freshman Jalon Daniels, who is much better with his legs than arms.

At just 17 years old, Daniels is less poised than Sanders and Duggan, but the case can be made he’s a tick faster. If he gets into space, it’s going to be difficult to catch him.

“Anytime that a quarterback has the ability to do two things really well, that’s a threat,” Campbell said. “As soon as you want to play pass coverage, he can make you pay in the running game.”

Despite the inability to contain mobile men under center, there’s another element when doing research that struck me.

Iowa State has a third-down completion percentage at 40 percent. It hasn’t gone over the 50-percent threshold in four of its five games. To me, that’s pretty low.

No one on the Cyclones seem too concerned with that stat.

“I don’t think it’s something that I think is glaring, but I think it’s something we know is critical,” Campbell said. “That’s something we have generally been good at.”

Thankfully, Kansas is really bad when its offense is facing third down and when the defense is tasked with getting off the field.

The whole argument is, yeah, Iowa State should win. I’m picking them to win. Maybe, for the first time, we’ll get to see one of the two true freshman backups — Hunter Dekkers or Aidan Bouman — for the first time this year.

All I’m saying is, don’t get all cute and think the game is won before either team takes the field. Pull an Iowa State and everything comes unglued.