On Tuesday evening, the College of Liberal Arts and Sciences held a Dean’s Distinguished Lecture, titled “The Next Pandemic Could Strike at Any Time: Are We Prepared?”

The lecturer, Claus Kadelka, an associate professor in the Department of Mathematics, studies mathematics and statistics and how they connect to biology, sociology and public health.

“I want to take 40 minutes or so to give you a brief overview of how insights from many, many disciplines, mathematics being one of them, can help us be better prepared for the next pandemic that will strike eventually,” Kadelka said.

Originally a mathematics student, Kadelka blended his love of biology and medicine with his passion for math to study the spread of HIV. After three years of study in Switzerland, Kadelka felt confident in his knowledge, sparking him to come to Iowa State. Soon after his arrival, the COVID-19 pandemic swept through the world, piquing his interest in the study of infectious diseases.

“Given this short history lesson, everyone here will agree, the question is not ‘when the next pandemic will happen,’” Kadelka said. “Unfortunately, I cannot give you that answer, and nobody in the world can. We don’t know when, we don’t know what, we don’t know how. We can just make good guesses.” 

Kadelka discussed the 25 different families of viruses that have the potential to cause an outbreak. According to him, if professionals are able to isolate a vaccine that reacts well with a vaccine in one of the 25 families, they are more prepared for a potential mutation or outbreak of said virus.

Kadelka said that mathematical models can be used to predict and reduce the burden of infectious diseases. However, he also talked about the erraticism of human behavior and how researchers must think outside of the box to fully understand how disease can spread.

“I want to look at yet another, and that is the key focus of my research group –  shortcoming of classic infectious disease models, and that is the idea that in these models the entire population is homogeneous and well-mixed,” Kadelka said.

For more information on the Iowa State Lecture Series, visit this link.

To stay up to date on infectious diseases, visit the CDC website.