Have you ever made a decision that you regret? Perhaps you decided on a player in your fantasy football league that had a poor performance that season? Maybe you decided to take that course elective that you were unprepared for and got a “C”? Engaging in better decision making can help avoid these bad outcomes. But often when we do try to engage in logical decision making, our irrational brain can pop in and make our analysis worse. In many cases, if you have an outcome in mind, it is a good idea to simply ask yourself: “Wanna bet that will happen?”

Asking yourself to bet on an outcome may seem weird, but it can have a profound effect on decision-making. Betting on a decision’s desired outcome reframes the choice as a costly decision that warrants further analysis, even if you aren’t gambling money. The idea comes from Annie Duke’s bestselling book “Thinking in Bets”. Although she is a World Series of Poker champion, the information Duke provides in her book applies beyond poker. The knowledge Duke provides in her book can be applied to all meaningful decisions where we do not have enough information. 

Take for example the idea of luck and skill. Duke illuminates that most outcomes of a decision are not based on 100 percent skill or 100 percent luck, but rather of a mix of both. If you decided to take a course on a topic that you are unfamiliar with, there is some skill that comes with learning and comprehending new material, but there is also the luck that comes with getting a teacher that plays off of your learning style. The same can go for picking a fantasy team. While you can be extremely skilled in picking top players based on stats and past performances, you may hit some bad luck when that player gets injured for the season. 

Being able to tell the difference between luck and skill is the first step to making better decisions, but you won’t be able to tell if you are making the best decisions possible. This is due to a pesky psychological blind spot called self-serving bias, which can exaggerate our success and brush away our failings. To avoid this, Duke recommends developing a group of friends or family members with the goal of “truth seeking”, which means analyzing outcomes of decisions at the expense of our pride potentially being hurt. It will feel bad to know you might have been wrong on a decision, but growth in decision-making emerges from failures and the lessons they teach us. 

This all ties back to the decision betting mentioned earlier. With the guidance of a truth seeking group and the new reality that outcomes of events are composed of both luck and skill, you can now “bet” with a higher confidence that your decisions are moving in a positive direction. With some work, the framework Duke describes will aid you in putting a more critical eye to impactful decision. This will overall help you make better positive decisions and lead you to a better life.