Ah, the winds of fall are upon us.

As nonconference play wraps up and the meat of the college football season gets under way, the race for the conference crown will be the focal point heading into the bowl season.

For the Big 12 Conference, the obvious preseason pick for conference champion would typically be Oklahoma or Texas. However, the implementation of round-robin conference scheduling and the addition of Texas Christian and West Virginia have made the championship picture a little more blurry.

One upset has already taken place in the Big 12 — Kansas State stunned Oklahoma 24-19 last Saturday as just the third team to defeat the Sooners in Norman, Okla., in the Bob Stoops era — there are bound to be more before December comes around.

Oklahoma was widely predicted to be the Big 12 champion before the season began, but after a mere four weeks, that prediction has ceased to maintain any merit.

For Iowa State to have five conference games at home this season is huge for ISU coach Paul Rhoads, who has amassed a 6-5 record at home against Big 12 opponents the past three seasons.

The only problem for Iowa State: It will likely be the underdog in all five games.

But that is no problem for Paul Rhoads and company. In his 21 wins as ISU football coach, Rhoads’ team has only been favored in nine games.

That stat is probably regurgitated more often than it should be, but that is because it perfectly illustrates upsets do happen.

But will Iowa State be in serious contention for the Big 12 title this season? No.

I am not saying Iowa State will never win a Big 12 title, but the transition to a round-robin conference schedule only hurts its chances of playing for one.

When the conference was at 12 teams, it was divided into the North and South divisions. Iowa State played every team in the North — Colorado, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Nebraska — while alternating three opponents every year in the South. When Iowa State played the South schedule of Baylor and Oklahoma State, it typically had a better chance of making it to a bowl game opposite the years it played Texas and Oklahoma.

If I had to guess, I would say Iowa State has the best opportunity of winning its home games against Texas Tech and Baylor, but the others are a little bit more of a stretch.

Kansas State has beaten Iowa State in their past four meetings by an average of less than six points per game. With the Wildcats’ momentum emerging from a win at Oklahoma last week and a seemingly easy matchup against Kansas before the Oct. 13 game, Iowa State will have an even tougher task ahead of it trying to stop them.

Beating Oklahoma is doable but very unlikely. Iowa State has not beaten Oklahoma since 1990, and Bob Stoops’ team is still going to be a heavy favorite heading into Jack Trice Stadium.

The longest shot of them all is the Cyclones’ regular season finale against West Virginia in the inaugural matchup between the two.

West Virginia quarterback Geno Smith is one of the frontrunners for this year’s Heisman Trophy. Since Iowa State has never beaten a team with the eventual Heisman Trophy winner (0-11-1), this will be considered monumental for the program if it should pull off the upset.

If I had to guess, Iowa State will probably not get away with more than three conference victories — vs. Texas Tech, vs. Baylor, at Kansas — to become bowl eligible for the second straight season and the third time in four years.

However, just like my prediction for last season’s game against No. 2 Oklahoma State, I have been wrong before and I could be wrong again.

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Jake Calhoun is a senior in journalism from Urbandale, Iowa.