GRIDIRON EDITORIAL: Transitive property for Cyclone victory is wishful thinking
November 3, 2011
We’re not going to short-change it: Texas Tech’s 41-38 upset of then-No. 3 Oklahoma on Oct. 22 in Norman, Okla., was nothing short of surprising.
As a result, Texas Tech jumped to No. 19 in the AP Top 25 poll and Oklahoma dropped to No. 9 — one slot underneath Kansas State.
What was at least equally — if not more — surprising the following week was Iowa State’s 41-7 upset of that same team that had dropped our jaws by beating Oklahoma.
With the new leadership of redshirt freshman Jared Barnett — who has been praised for his poise in the pocket and his ability to lead the ISU offense into scoring drives that look somewhat effortless — ISU fans may be beginning to think Oklahoma will be a piece of cake when the Cyclones travel to Norman on Nov. 26.
Well, we’re not here to tell you that you’re foolish for thinking Iowa State has a chance to beat Oklahoma — something it has not done since 1990 — because who are we to stomp on your faith and spit on it?
But we do want to tell you that investing heavily in the transitive property (if A+B=C and B+C=A, then A+C=B) is just plain silly and that there are other factors to take into account when it comes to how teams fare against each other during the regular season.
We’ll look at an example from this season between three of the best teams in the Big Ten — Michigan State, Wisconsin and Nebraska.
On Oct. 1, Nebraska traveled to Madison, Wis., for its inaugural conference game as a member of the Big Ten ranked eighth in the nation to face No. 7 Wisconsin.
Wisconsin won handily, 48-17, while “Jump Around” boomed through the sound system at Camp Randall Stadium so loudly that NU coach Bo Pelini couldn’t hear himself scream.
Fast forward to Oct. 22 in East Lansing, Mich., when Michigan State upended Wisconsin’s hopes of an undefeated season and possibly a bid in the BCS National Championship Game when the Spartans won on a controversial, last-second desperation heave that was reviewed to be a touchdown in a 37-31 contest.
A week later, Michigan State fell to Nebraska 24-3 in front of a typical sellout crowd at Memorial Stadium in Lincoln, Neb.
So wait, Wisconsin killed Nebraska and Michigan State beat Wisconsin, so shouldn’t Michigan State have beaten Nebraska?
Absolutely not.
There are many factors to take into account — the hostile environment a team that had previously been victorious may find itself in, injuries to key players that the coaches try to keep under wraps from the general public, etc. — that don’t factor into the win-and-loss column.
Another important factor is the differing styles of game play that may not translate into a sure win or loss against one another.
The spread offense can be effective against defenses that specialize in stopping the run while lacking sufficient pass-defending capabilities — which was the case in Iowa State’s 44-41 triple-overtime win against Iowa on Sept. 11 — but that does not mean it will work against other defenses that have faltered at the hands of your upcoming opponent.
So folks, we’re not saying you shouldn’t believe Iowa State can beat Oklahoma or whoever was beaten at the hands of an opponent Iowa State has gotten the best of.
But to think that just because a team that Iowa State beat had defeated an even better team the week before means an automatic victory over the team that’s even better is just preposterous.
Of course, that doesn’t mean you’re not allowed to hope. We’re just saying, don’t be so quick to get your hopes up.