Uneven recovery from recession likely across Iowa

Hilary Bassett

In the last couple of years, the nation has faced a recession that has hit many individuals and families hard, but the latest reports show Americans could now be facing a recovery, albeit very slow.

“We know now that it is going to get better, there is no doubt about it,” said Noga O’Connor, research associate for the Iowa Policy Project, a nonpartisan research institute. “It’s really a question of how long it’s going to take and, keep in mind, it’s going to be slow.”

Since May 2008, Iowa has lost around 51,000 jobs, but the first two months of 2011 have shown a growth of about 4,000 jobs each month.

But those studying the trends warn against using these first two months to predict any overarching trends for 2011.

“That’s such a short time period and we really discouraged using too short a time period to figure out whether we’re on any trends or not,” said Mike Owen, assistant director of the Iowa Policy Project. “But, if it stayed that way for a year, for example, that would be basically the reverse of what happened two years ago.”

While it is generally agreed that a recovery will take time, some say there is still reason to feel optimistic.

“We are seeing job growth in multiple sectors, which is very good and we are also seeing a growth in our overall size in our labor force,” said Kerry Koonce, communications director for Iowa Workforce Development. “I think there is a more optimistic outlook from individuals as well.”

But others aren’t as optimistic about Iowa’s recovery.

“If I do what I consider an optimistic projection about recovery, I don’t see us climbing out to where we’re posting net job growth from our previous peak until maybe the first quarter of 2013,” said David Swenson, associate scientist of economics. “It’s still a ways out there for me, at least two years out, so they’re more optimistic than I am.”

Swenson said he’s also concerned about an uneven recovery across Iowa.

“The other thing I worry about here in Iowa is that the growth and recovery is really only going to happen initially in a few select places,” Swenson said. “The Des Moines metropolitan area, which would include Ames because we’re close to them, and the Cedar Rapids-Iowa City area will grow, while much of the rest of the state is going to lag.”

Students either graduating in May or those just looking for a summer job could face more prospects this summer compared to the last few years.

“I believe it should be better because, compared to last year and even the year before, more firms are thinking about what they’re going to be doing in the next couple of years versus just trying to hold things together,” Swenson said. “So that’s got to be better for students in terms of internships as well as opportunities for your first job.”

Even with more prospects, the job search will still be difficult, especially with competition from last year’s class, most of whom are still willing to take internships and jobs.

“It’s still going to be very competitive out there,” Koonce said. “So whether you’re looking for a summer job or looking for that first job after you graduate, you need to make sure that you are showcasing those skills that you have, anything you can do to make yourself stand out.”