Dewey defeats Truman
November 2, 2010
It’s 9:45 p.m., and I’m two-for-two on my U.S. Senate predictions: Wisconsin went red, and West Virginia went blue.
It’s too bad for Wisconsin, because Russ Feingold was a great senator. After all, he was the only senator to vote against the Patriot Act.
It’s a win for West Virginia, because Joe Manchin is a great leader.
I’m also starting to feel good about my predictions in Pennsylvania and Illinois.
Toomey (R), in Pennsylvania, has finally caught Sestak (D), but it’s still too close to call (with 90 percent of the votes in). I think there’s a decent chance we could see a recount, since they’re only separated by 10,000 votes, with roughly 3.5 million votes cast.
In Illinois, Kirk (R) continues to close the gap on Giannoulias (D), with 71 percent of the votes in. I think Kirk will win, but it will be close.
In the end, he will overcome all of the dead peoples’ votes from Chicago.
The other close races in the Senate are still up in the air (Colorado, California, Nevada and Washington).
I’m going to stick with Colorado, California and Nevada going red, and Washington will go blue.
I think I’m also sticking with my prediction of a 50/50 split in the Senate.
However, I can’t figure out my math, and I think I might have messed up.
As for the House of Representatives, Fox News was reporting the Republicans stood to gain 60 seats. That means my call of 65 might be a little high.
However, I’m going to stand by my out-of-the-air, non-scientific prediction: Republicans are storming into majorities.
In Iowa, I still feel confident Iowa’s U.S. House of Representatives will stay in office, though it’s going to be close for the Dems.
While I’d rather be wrong and not have a massive Republican majority, I still think it’s going to work out for Obama and America.
Hopefully, this means the G.O.P. will start governing, and President Obama will figure out some good solutions, maybe even figure out a way to balance the budget, like in the late ’90s. But we’ll see.
I will be interested to see what Congress and the President try to get done before the new Congress is sworn in.
There are major items that need to be resolved before Jan. 1.
One of them is what to do with the Bush tax cuts. I think Republicans will be emboldened to try and extend them all.
However, I’m not sure the President will compromise on the issue, but, again, we’ll see.
Something needs to get done, though, that much is certain. Otherwise, our fragile economy is at a serious risk to tumble back into a recession.
Another major item of note will be the Deficit Reduction Commission, and their report that is due out in the next few weeks.
Expect them to make recommendations on Social Security and popular tax deductions, since they cost the feds about $1.4 trillion a year.
It looks like they’d like to make spending cuts of 75 percent and revenue increases of 25 percent in order to lower the deficit.
I think that’d be a step in the right direction. In fact, if they just listened to Fareed Zakaria, we’d be OK.
If you haven’t, you should read his article in Time a week or so ago on restoring the American Dream.
It’s absolutely brilliant. It will take compromise from both sides to work, since it involves both tax cuts and opening up visas to increase immigration.
But, in the end, there are a couple of things to take away from the elections.
One: It will never bad as bad you think it will be, and never as good as you think it will be.
It’s politics, after all, and politicians can only accomplish and change so much. Often, it’s slow and accomplished over time.
Sometimes, drastic measures do occur, but, mostly, they don’t.
So, if you’re a Republican, don’t get too high. Just think back to 1994.
You may not be old enough to remember it, but the Republican party promised to change Washington, and that definitely didn’t happen.
And, if you’re a Democrat, don’t get too depressed. The sun came up today, and life goes on.
After all, the United States did elect a black guy to the President’s office just two years ago, so don’t lose hope.