HASENMILLER: Opportunity cost of stimulus is very high
May 6, 2009
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One of the primary “accomplishments” of President Obama’s first 100
days in office was the Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 being
passed. According to <a target="_blank" href="
“http://recovery.gov/”>recovery.gov, “In the face of an
economic crisis, the magnitude of which we have not seen since the
Great Depression, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act
represents a strategic — and significant — investment in our
country’s future.”
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With a price tag of $787 billion, calling it a significant
investment is an understatement. The entire federal budget in 2007
came with a price tag of $2,963 billion dollars, so the stimulus
package represents a nearly 25 percent increase in federal
spending.
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Investment is “The investing of money or capital in order to gain
profitable returns, as interest, income, or appreciation in value,”
according to Dictionary.com.
The idea is that by giving up something now, you will receive
something better in the future. People invest all the time. For
example, people invest their money in banks, real estate and the
stock market with the intention of receiving more money at a later
time.
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Most of you reading this right now are probably investing your
money, as well as a great deal of your time, on an education at
Iowa State. Presumably, by attending college you hope to get a
better paying, more desirable job after college as a result of your
investment.
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Entrepreneurs invest their time and money into businesses, with the
hopes of making that money back, plus more in the future. Even
dating can be seen as an investment of your time and money in
another person.
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Since the purpose of The Recovery and Reinvestment Act is to
“…[invest] in our country’s future,” we can reasonably assume that
our government expects — or at the very least expects us to believe
— that the $787 billion that it spends will yield a net positive
result of more than $787 billion.
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However, something else that needs to be considered is what’s known
as opportunity cost.
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Opportunity cost is “The cost of an alternative that must be
forgone in order to pursue a certain action. Put another way, the
benefits you could have received by taking an alternative action,”
according to <a href=
“http://Dictionary.com”>Dictionary.com.
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As I mentioned earlier, people invest all the time. So the real
question is will the $787 billion spent yield, not more than $787
billion, but more than it would have had it been spent by the
people instead?
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Some of this money will come through increasing taxes on the rich.
This is because, according to the Fiscal Year 2010 Budget Overview,
“For the better part of three decades, a disproportionate share of
the Nation’s wealth has been accumulated by the very wealthy.”
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I can’t help but point out that some of your tax dollars actually
went towards paying someone to determine that wealthy people have
more wealth.
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Some of the money will also come from you through inflation,
whether or not you are considered rich. This is because, as
Economist and Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution of Stanford
University Thomas Sowell says, “Inflation also means that all the
talk about how higher taxes will be confined to “the rich” is
nonsense. Inflation is a hidden tax that takes away the value of
money held by everyone at every income level.”
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That is also why the Chinese have begun to sell their U.S.
government bonds. As Sowell said, “The Chinese are no fools. They
know that all this unbridled spending — even when it is called
‘investment’ — means that inflation is coming. That in turn means
that the dollars with which U.S. government bonds will be paid off
will be worth a lot less than the dollars with which the bonds were
bought.”
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And of course, some of it will be borrowed and paid for later with
interest. In 2007, the total cost of interest on treasury debt
securities was $430 billion.
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The Fiscal Year 2010 Budget Overview explains that, “[The] lack of
investment in the future is most glaring in the area of clean
energy.” The resulting priorities are doing things such as slowing
global warming, doubling renewable energy generating capacity and
developing low-carbon emission technologies.
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One might think that during “…an economic crisis, the magnitude of
which we have not seen since the Great Depression…” our priorities
wouldn’t have so much to do with clean energy as it would with
cheap energy.
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The reason that this is not the case is because of differences in
incentives. If you were to keep your own money and invest it, you
would undoubtedly invest it in what seemed the most profitable
fashion, likely after a thorough investigation of the financial
implications of your options.
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This is especially true for the rich. They tend to make good
investments — that’s why they’re rich. Which does make it
questionable as to whether taking a disproportionately high amount
of their money is really a good decision.
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Politicians also invest their money in what seems to them the most
profitable fashion. But the thing is, what is profitable for a
politician is whatever gets them reelected and pleases the special
interests who give them donations. This is true for all
politicians, regardless of party — because the ones whose politics
weren’t aimed at getting them elected were probably never elected
in the first place. That is the unfortunate nature of politics.
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The problem with allowing politicians to invest your money for you
is that they rarely have a better idea of what is best for you than
you do. And even if they do, it is not necessarily what is best for
them, which is what really matters.
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The solution is simply to vote for politicians whose personal
interests are to let you keep your own money, otherwise known as
fiscal conservatives. Since their support tends to come from groups
who also want to keep their money, it is in these politicians’ best
interests to refrain from making “investments” on your behalf.
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— Blake Hasenmiller is a senior in industrial engineering and
economics from De Witt.