Cyclone quarterback Austen Arnaud was frank and pessimistic when talking about this Saturday’s game against No. 16 Kansas.

“We have to score 30 to 40 points to win this game because Kansas is going to score at will,” Arnaud said. “It’s one of those teams where if you don’t score early, the points start piling up.”

The Jayhawks piled on the points in a 45-7 drubbing of the Cyclones’ last season. Kansas (3-1 overall) will bring much of its 2007 Orange Bowl-winning team into Jack Trice Stadium, including another explosive offense led by Todd Reesing.

Coach Gene Chizik said Iowa State (2-2) will need to show marked improvement over the course of the game in order to have a chance to win. That includes avoiding a third straight sluggish start, as the Cyclones haven’t scored in the first half of their last two games — both of which were losses.

Neither team played last weekend, but Chizik said the extra time is only of so much value. Reesing has thrown for over 350 yards in his last three games, while Kansas’ spread offense has averaged over 35 points per contest.

“You can’t reinvent how to play defense in three days to try to stop a really good offense,” Chizik said. “We got to get better at where we’re going [and] how to get there. We’ve got to get better at the things we do … and we got to do them [in a] way than we’ve done in the first four games, or we won’t have a chance.”

Chizik said open-field tackling, which has been inconsistent this season, is the team’s primary defensive concern against a “team that can make you miss.”

He said the Cyclones won’t have a chance to win if they don’t tackle well. Chizik said the odds are that Kansas will “score a lot, no matter who they’re playing.”

Arnaud said this weekend’s challenge reminds him of last year’s 42-17 loss to Texas Tech.

“You know they were going to score regardless,” he said. “We just had to keep on scoring on offense, and the next thing I know I look at the scoreboard, it’s 24-0, 28-0. Kansas is a team like that [which] has a potent offense and knows how to score.”

The Jayhawks will enter Jack Trice Stadium as 12.5-point favorites, although the team has outscored Iowa State, 96-17, in the team’s last two meetings.

Cornerback Allen Bell said he thinks the Cyclone defense is more physical than last season.

“Last year that was a big problem. They were running bubble [screens] and they were blocking us,” Bell said. “I think this year we’re a little bit more physical coming off blocks, making open-field tackles than we were last year.”

Defensive tackle Nate Frere said the team will try to “build a box” around Reesing to try to keep him contained. Chizik said the whole Kansas offense is elusive.

“It’s not just the quarterback that escapes — it’s their wideouts, it’s their tailbacks, it’s a team that can make you miss,” Chizik said. “We’ve got our work cut out for us. If we don’t tackle well Saturday, we’re not going to have a a chance to win.”

After reviewing the first four ISU games, Frere said he thought isolated breakdowns in the defense caused big plays. Iowa State has allowed an average of 187.5 rushing yards a game, but Kansas has struggled to run the ball this season.

“I think we’re a lot better defense than people think we are,” Frere said. “We just give up some big plays here and there. I think we’ve had some missed tackles that led to big plays, and that’s what has really hurt us.”