MASTRE: Times uncertain with our futures ahead
September 27, 2008
To quote an old Bob Dylan song, “The times they are a-changin’.” Or are they? A week ago, I woke up and turned on the radio just in time to hear: “It may not be the 1930s, but this is the Great Depression.” To stay informed during my busy schedule, I listen to NPR News in the morning. The analyst quoted was of course referring to the recent Wall Street woes. He clarified by saying that while the economy itself was not as bad as what it was in the ’30s, the financial turmoil was.
Listening to a statement like that really made me stop and think. I remember learning about the Great Depression and the Dirty ’30s in high school — the dust bowls, the black and white photos of unemployment lines and impoverished families, Roosevelt’s “New Deal,” and make-work projects such as the Civilian Conservation Corps.
Let’s recap. The stock market crashed on Oct. 28 and 29, which became known as Black Tuesday. Construction and other heavy industry projects came to a screeching halt. Crop prices plummeted. There was no work for farmers, loggers or miners, and soon that list spread. The stock market rebounded a year after it crashed but investor confidence did not. The Midwest became ravaged by drought. Those who still had work began to find their wages couldn’t buy as much as they once did.
Eventually, the markets did recover, but not without worldwide consequences. It took years to rebuild these economies — almost a decade’s worth of work. What did end the Great Depression? According to the Library of Congress, it was America entering World War II. Specifically, Dec. 7, 1941 — the day Pearl Harbor was attacked.
Bear Stearns, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and AIG… the headlines have been full of bad news. Are the taxpayers not already on the hook for billions of dollars? The answer is a resounding yes. While I cannot pretend to understand the inner workings of these companies, I do know that there are huge risks and liabilities involved when taxpayer monies are involved. Then of course, there are associated accountability issues. This not only sounds bad, it is bad.
Charles Dobbs, professor and chairman of the department of history, doesn’t see it the same way. For starters, he indicates that we are not sitting at a 25 percent unemployment rate. A huge part of that number was the female workforce. Dobbs referred to how many women were laid off or would quit their jobs to make room for a man to work. As such, he believes that 25 percent as being underreported.
As a young person preparing to finish a degree, it’s pretty bleak to think I will be walking out into one of those black and white photos of the 1930s when I graduate. Actually, it seems hopeless. Perhaps I can take solace in the housing market. A few years ago as prices were skyrocketing and I thought I would never be able to afford my own home.
According to Forbes magazine, there is a “112 percent year over year spike in the number of foreclosures in the United States.” With house prices still tumbling, I think I can safely move from the cardboard box I pictured for myself to a nice two- or three-bedroom home, maybe even in a decent neighborhood. Well, that seems positive — if I can land a job to pay for it when I finish school.
Rick Carter, professor of finance, also has an optimistic perspective. When asked to comment on the Great Depression analogy, he responded that it was really hard to make a comparison like that.
“There are so many new regulations and stop-gap measures that people have put in place since then. The attitudes of government have changed. It was very hands-off in Hoover’s administration,” Carter said.
While the current administration recognizes it has a responsibility to the marketplace, he adds that it is obvious they are doing what they can.
It seems to me we’re riding a roller coaster. We just don’t know where or when the ride ends. One day $700 billion is coming to the rescue, and the next day it’s not. If and when Congress does approve it, then my future gets bleaker. When I finish school not only will I have to find a job, repay my student loans, find somewhere to live, and think about having a family someday, I can also look forward to paying back my portion of that $700 billion debt.
Are things going to get better? Will they keep getting worse? It seems only time will tell. That’s pretty depressing considering my future is ahead of me, and right now it’s not quite starting out the way I thought it would.
— Erin Mastre is a graduate student in landscape architecture from Edmonton, Canada.