Economy to affect campaign
January 29, 2008
There is no question that the U.S. economy is struggling. The real question isn’t whether we are in or near a recession, but what effect it will have on the country and the 2008 election.
Sergio Lence, professor of economics, said the markets will eventually right themselves.
“The housing market has been booming for a number of years,” Lence said. “Now, if you think that boom is sustainable for the long run, you have to think about the big picture. The housing market can’t continue to expand at high rates all the time.”
Lence compared the current state of the economy to the plunge in Internet technology stocks at the turn of the millennium, a problem he said had a dramatic impact at the time, but has since corrected itself.
“Back in 2000 and 2001 there was a boom in [information technology]; then everybody thought the world would be doomed because the Internet stocks all crashed. This time around it’s the same thing, just with a different market,” Lence said.
Unlike the peaks and valleys of the economy, which may fluctuate over decades, there is one issue that will affect the U.S. economy within the next year: The 2008 presidential election.
As of late, President George W. Bush has urged Congress to implement a stimulus plan to help get the economy back on its feet.
President Bush called the stimulus package a “shot in the arm” and supported the package, which would allocate nearly $145 billion worth of relief in the form of tax rebates, according to an Associated Press report.
When broken down to an individual level, the proposed rebates would potentially come in the form of $600 for independent individuals and $1,200 for couples, plus a $300 rebate for each dependent.
Peter Orazem, university professor of economics, said the “shot in the arm” theory being pushed by President Bush is more about politics than fixing the economy.
“The general sense about packages like this is that they don’t have a very large effect,” Orazem said. “In the past, people have either saved [the rebate] or used it to buy down debt. So, it’s not necessarily a sudden infusion of cash.”
Lence agreed that simply handing out money to the public won’t serve any meaningful purpose in fixing the country’s current economic situation.
“I tend to think it will not really have as dramatic an effect as some political leaders want us to believe. I think the economy has some imbalances that probably have to be corrected,” Lence said.
During the past days and weeks, the focus of most, if not all, presidential candidates has shifted greatly from ethanol and energy reform in Iowa to change in New Hampshire and finally to the economy in South Carolina. That continuing focus on dollars and cents will likely continue as political leaders from both parties have addressed the economy as a primary issue.
“Everybody [involved with the election] is going to fall all over themselves saying they were the first to act,” Orazem said. “I imagine both parties are going to claim credit for whatever happens, but we don’t even know now if we’re in a recession.”
A few of the areas that Orazem pointed out include the heated race between Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., and Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y. He said that by using a more broad approach to dealing with the economy, Obama may be able to gain an upper hand because of Clinton’s very specific, detail-oriented plan.
On the GOP side of things, Orazem said that John McCain, R-Ariz., may be perceived as a “maverick” because his stances include traditional Republican stances.
“McCain is being looked at as a maverick Republican because he is doing what republicans should be doing,” Orazem said.
“The fact that people [candidates] are saying these things about the economy suggests that people aren’t paying attention or people just don’t believe what they’re saying.”
Although mortgage rates and cash borrowing are issues that face some students, the use of credit cards is an area in the financial spectrum that faces a broader spectrum of the student population.
When it came down to spending, both Lence and Orazem agreed that students need to focus more on living within their means rather than falling into the trap of common consumerism.
Lence stressed the importance of financial education and its application to spending.
“You would think that a rational person would only spend depending on their income, but when you’re talking about college students who don’t have that experience, they’re not sure how long it’s going to take to pay back those debts,” Lence said. “I think that many students might be better off if they didn’t use credit cards and got some sort of educational training.”