Huckabee wins Iowa Caucuses
January 3, 2008
For Iowa Republicans, Mike Huckabee former governer, R-ARK, seemed the best choice out of the slew of candidates that have canvassed the state for much of the last couple of months. Huckabee, who took 34 percent of the final vote outran Mitt Romney who came in second with 25 percent.
Fred Thompson former senator R-Tenn, and Senator John McCain, R-Ariz, were neck and neck for most of the night with Thompson finally winning but both receiving about 13 percent of the vote.
Steffen Schmidt, professor of political science, said that he’d predicted Huckabee to win on his radio show nearly half a year ago. Huckabee is a Baptist minister and he’s been pro-life all of his life, Schmidt said.
“I always thought that he could do well in Iowa,” Schmidt said.
He said that Huckabee was a better fit for Iowa than candidates like Mitt Romney former governer, R-Mass, who doesn’t really fit the conservative mold, and Congressman Ron Paul, R-TX who is on the extreme libertarian end of the Republican spectrum.
McCain didn’t even campaign in Iowa, Schmidt said, so he wasn’t really a key player.
Another candidate who didn’t campaign often in Iowa was former mayor Rudy Giuliani R-N.Y.
Schmidt said that Giuliani never connected with the voters in Iowa.
Stephanie Lichter, junior in political science and president of ISU College Republicans, said that she was surprised that Giuliani had finished as poorly as he had.
She said that she was happy with the results of the caucuses and would support Huckabee.
“I would vote for him if he got the nomination,” Lichter said. “It’s too soon for me to tell if he’s going to carry this through to the other states.”
Schmidt said that one of the explanations for the results was that Huckabee fit the personality mold that moderate Republicans were looking for.
“Huckabee has a personality that, if you get to see him in person, [is] kind of humorous and low key, he’s not phony,” Schmidt said.
One of the other reasons that Huckabee was able to do so well in Iowa, Schmidt said, was that he connected with the Christian base in Iowa.
“In other words, 60 percent of all Republicans who went to the caucuses said they were born again or evangelical Christians,” Schmidt said. “Huckabee got 46 percent of those, that’s huge. Romney got 19 percent which is very small and then Thompson got 11, McCain got 10 and Ron Paul got 10.”
So, Huckabee connected with the Christians and Schmidt said that this was one of the reasons that Huckabee did so well.
Schmidt said that in order to do well in Iowa a candidate has to build a political machine in Iowa in order to get supporters.
“Huckabee, by appealing to Christian conservatives immediately, had a viral machine in place,” Schmidt said. “He didn’t need to go out and build it and hire professionals because there are born again and evangelical Christians in every county and I would say in every precinct in Iowa.”
Once those people connected with Huckabee, Schmidt said, they campaigned for him without there having to be a lot of money poured in to Iowa to set up a political infrastructure.
Huckabee’s win in Iowa does not necessarily translate to wins in other states.
“He’s not going to do very well in New Hampshire,” Schmidt said.
He said that only 9.5 percent of people polled in New Hampshire supported Huckabee.
“There are not a lot of conservative Christians [in New Hampshire]. Nobody thinks that he’s going to do very well,” Schmidt said. “Huckabee is just going to have to kind of suck it up and go through New Hampshire without much of a chance of success.”
McCain could do well in New Hampshire because he’s always been a favorite of the independents Schmidt said.
Schmidt said that he didn’t think there would be any dropouts among the Republicans who are campaigning nomination just because of the Iowa caucuses.
Mitt Romney who was depending on a win in Iowa, Schmidt said, still has a lot of money so he doesn’t have to worry about dropping out and Ron Paul got a surprising number of votes despite his libertarian status.
Rudy Giuliani is planning to do well in other states, Schmidt said, and he’s ahead in the national polls, so there really isn’t a reason for any of the candidates to drop out before the New Hampshire primaries take place.
The youth vote turned out in surprising numbers for the Democratic candidates but the Republican side didn’t connect as well, Schmidt said. This could mean trouble for the Republican campaign later on. The nomination is still very much up in the air.
“I don’t have any crystal balls in front of me and it’s really still very flexible,” Schmidt said. “On the Republican side, nobody wants to guess.”