Politics to heat up after surprising caucus, primary
January 14, 2008
With the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primaries concluded and the South Carolina primaries just around the corner, citizens might think that the political forecast is cooling off until Feb. 5 – Super Tuesday. Nothing could be further from the truth.
With Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., winner of the Iowa Democratic caucus, finishing second to Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., in the New Hampshire primary and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee winning in Iowa and Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., winning in New Hampshire on the Republican side, the race to the White House is just heating up.
After the withdrawals of Chris Dodd, D-Conn., and Joe Biden, D-Del., after their losses in Iowa and the exit of Bill Richardson, D-N.M., after his loss in New Hampshire, the Democratic race is quickly being reduced to the top three candidates: Obama, Clinton and former Sen. John Edwards, D-N.C.
“Obama did a tremendous job of attracting the young voters,” said Steffen Schmidt, university professor of political science. “Women also voted for him more than Hillary. Obama is very charismatic.”
Schmidt said he thinks that may have hurt Clinton in Iowa.
“Women don’t vote for women here. It’s a cultural thing,” he said.
Schmidt also commented on Edwards’ inability to do well in Iowa.
Edwards is “too scary” to Iowa voters, Schmidt said. Edwards was constantly threatening big corporations, and a lot of people in Iowa work for those corporations. The fact that he was threatening to take them down may have scared those people away.
Dianne Bystrom, director of the Carrie Chapman Catt Center for Women and Politics, said Edwards has to pick up a win to sustain his campaign.
“If he [Edwards] doesn’t pick up a win in South Carolina or Michigan, I just don’t think he’ll be able to continue his campaign,” Bystrom said.
Bystrom said the candidate that hurt Clinton in Iowa was Edwards.
“The caucus process really benefited Edwards,” Bystrom said.
“Edwards’ numbers in New Hampshire were lower than in Iowa. Particularly among woman voters,” Bystrom said.
Schmidt said it would not be a good idea for Edwards to be in a vice president position, either.
“It would be suicide for the Democratic nominee to take on Edwards as their running mate,” Schmidt said.
“Look what he did for the John Kerry campaign. Edwards didn’t bring anything to the campaign. Edwards is a Southern Democrat and, for the election in the South, you can’t just rely on Democrats.”
Bystrom said Richardson is in good shape for the position.
“He’s Latino and from the Southwest, with plenty of experience,” Bystrom said.
According to realclearpolitics.com, Obama is 13 points ahead of Clinton in South Carolina polls as of press time. Clinton leads the Democratic polls in Michigan by 23 points, and Edwards is just not connecting with people in his home states, Schmidt said.
“The Democratic race is narrowing down to two people. Both are very strong, and both have a lot of appeal and money,” Schmidt said of Clinton and Obama.
“They’re going to keep going to Super Tuesday. After that, we are going to see if one blew the other out of the water and no more money will come in. But if it’s still tight, it could go beyond February 5th.”
Bystrom agreed.
“Both [Obama and Clinton] will be competitive into February 5th,” Bystrom said.
On the Republican side, there is still no clear front-runner.
“Romney has the constituent appeal, but it’s too small to generate a victory,” Schmidt said. “He made the mistake in Iowa of pretending to be a real conservative, which didn’t match his record.”
Schmidt said McCain should do well in South Carolina because he gets a lot of veterans’ votes. Veterans respect him for his courage and sacrifice.
“Huckabee and McCain should do well in South Carolina because there are a lot of veterans,” Schmidt said. “But after that it gets complicated, because McCain doesn’t have the money.”
Bystrom said the race between Mitt Romney, R-Mass., and John McCain, R-Ariz., will be very competitive in Michigan, and Mike Huckabee, is expected to win in South Carolina.
Huckabee won Iowa with very little money by drumming up grassroots support.
“If Huckabee can raise money on the Internet, he can sustain his campaign,” Schmidt said. “In Florida, Huckabee is caught up with Giuliani.”
Giuliani is starting his campaign in Florida.
“Giuliani decided to pretend he wasn’t running in Iowa and New Hampshire. And he’s not running in South Carolina at all,” Schmidt said. “So he’s starting his election in Florida.”
Schmidt compared Giuliani’s campaign to the Super Bowl.
“You can’t miss all the preseason games and play just a few before the Super Bowl, which is Super Tuesday,” Schmidt said.
Bystrom said that since Giuliani started his campaign in Florida, if he does win there, he could sustain his campaign.
Ron Paul came out of nowhere to become an Internet-favorite candidate.
“Ron Paul, who isn’t much of a candidate in other ways, has raised huge amounts of money because a lot of people are crazy about him,” Schmidt said. “These people are raising money for him via the Internet, so he has 10 million dollars, which is unbelievable.”
Ron Paul could run as a Libertarian or an independent, “although he has said he is in this for the Republican nomination,” Bystrom said.
Schmidt said Fred Thompson came in way too late and doesn’t have anything different to offer than anyone else.
“He doesn’t seem to be campaigning too hard,” Schmidt said.
Giuliani has remained strong in the national polls, but candidates such as Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney are catching up to him very quickly.
“It’s going to be a big battle between vision and competence,” Schmidt said.
Bystrom said she wouldn’t count out anyone who’s still in the race.
“This race is all about collecting delegates,” she said. “This is going to be a long race on both sides.”