Iowa turning point for some candidates
December 5, 2007
During every presidential election cycle, the Iowa caucuses play a vital role in separating the good, the bad and the ugly. This is a trend that will continue in 2008, but with more added meaning.
Between the war in Iraq, immigration, gay marriage and other key issues, the image and future of the White House, in large part, lies in the hands of Iowa voters.
James McCormick, professor and chairman of political science, said the role of the caucuses is vital to the election process and if candidates don’t get off on the right foot, they might as well not get out on any foot at all.
“The caucuses’ impact, largely, is in winnowing in and winnowing out candidates. They basically identify a set of candidates that are likely to really advance in the election process,” McCormick said.
Because of the importance of the caucuses, Iowa State and the rest of Iowa has seen a large amount of presidential appearances. These attempts are purely because politicians realize the importance of starting the primary process on a high instead of a low.
McCormick said after the caucuses, there are likely to be candidates who drop out of both the Democratic and Republican sides.
“After the Iowa caucuses, it often occurs that the candidates that do not do well either drop out or are really dropped out in terms of the public perception,” he said.
This year is different than years past because there is no incumbent or vice president running for office. In turn, this pressure is going to put more pressure on the campaigns of all politicians running for the presidency.
Ray Dearin, professor of political science and English, said the caucuses are “even more important this year than ever before” because of the incumbent situation and because so much has been “wasted” on campaigning in Iowa, New Hampshire and North Carolina.
“Most of the money is wasted. Mitt Romney, for example, sent out mailings, ads, sending out a video or DVD and making phone calls just to cover the bases,” Dearin said. “And who knows if it’ll pay off or not.”
Dearin said of the political ramifications of states such as Florida and Michigan trying to edge up their primary and caucuses dates that either national committee might go so far as to take away delegates – but that probably won’t happen because “one of them will relent.”
“It’s predictable. It’s mostly a rhetorical situation,” Dearin said.
Kimberly Conger, assistant professor of political science, said the politicians sitting in third and fourth place in the polls would need to have the best showings during the January caucuses.
“There is an increased interest this year that we have already seen. It makes a difference that there are competitive races in both races – hopefully that will increase the turnout,” Conger said. “I think that people who are running in third or fourth place on both sides need to be more concerned. People like John Edwards and Bill Richardson will need to work on strong showings.”
On the Republican side of things, Conger said the two politicians who need to make a splash are Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., and Rep. Tom Tancredo, R-Colo.
The 2008 caucuses will also differ from those in previous years because students will not be caucusing in full force on campus. Instead, Conger said students will be spread out around the state, where they will be able to have more of an impact in their hometowns.
“Politics work best when you’re in your hometown, in places where you know people and people know you,” Conger said. “That’s going to be a much more effective way to get involved politically than here in Ames, where you may only be living for four or five years.”