Beat the trends: Midseason fantasy baseball
June 25, 2007
The All-Star break is approaching for all 30 Major League Baseball teams, giving players a time to rest and fantasy baseball owners a chance to retool and reevaluate their teams for the second half of the season.
If history is any indication, first-half slumps will break, injuries will heal, and the direction of many players’ seasons will reverse after July 10.
Here are several players to trade for or trade off, given their current value, in the coming weeks.
Trade for:
Lance Berkman, 1B, Houston Astros
Berkman showed signs of life in his 11-game hitting streak, moving his batting average from .241 to .265.
The 31-year-old power hitter hits home runs in bunches but is a notorious slumper. Expect Berkman to approach his three-year average of 33 home runs, 110+ RBI and 90+ runs despite his subpar first half (10 HR, 44 RBI, 37 runs).
Victor Martinez, C, Cleveland Indians
If anyone is foolish enough to trade Martinez, get him. The 28-year-old catcher is having a career season on one of the best offenses in the league.
Batting .314 with 14 home runs and 62 RBI, Martinez will eclipse last year’s production (16 hr, 93 RBI) within weeks of the break. In his fourth year as a starter, Martinez is highly valued at a position of typically minimal fantasy production. Buy – if you can – while the value is high.
Bobby Abreu, RF, New York Yankees
At the 2005 All-Star break, Abreu was batting .307 with 18 home runs and 21 stolen bases. He won the Home Run Derby, but has been mostly disappointing since.
After showing productivity but limited power last year in almost 60 games as a Yankee, Abreu has earned criticism in the Big Apple with four home runs and a .257 average so far this season.
Still, on the most talented lineup in baseball, Abreu, 33, is bound to earn RBI and score if he can find his bat. Despite a poor start, his 54 runs rank in the top 10 in the majors. He has also stolen 12 bases in 15 attempts.
Trade off:
Magglio Ordonez, RF, Detroit Tigers
With 68 RBI, 64 runs and a .381 average, Ordonez has reestablished himself as a star as a Tiger after building his career with the White Sox in Chicago.
Despite playing a full season last year, Ordonez is a high injury risk. Between the 2004 and 2005 seasons, he played only 134 games.
Advice for owners who have enjoyed Ordonez’s production this season: Trade him if you can. His average is bound to go down, and so is his production.
If you can’t trade him, enjoy his role on the best offense in MLB this season as long as you can.
Most Hardy owners picked him up via free agency. If possible, squeeze as much value out of the shortstop before he falls down to earth.
Hardy, 24, has missed two straight games due to hip and back soreness. Even if he is OK, Hardy’s torrid start has cooled off, and he has hit only two home runs in the current month.
His start – .285 avg., 17 HR, 49 RBI, 41 runs – has been impressive and his future may be bright, but don’t expect Hardy to stay consistent during his first full season as a starter.
Miguel Tejada, SS, Baltimore Orioles
Once the premier player of his position, Tejada’s productivity and power have slipped in the past two years.
His streak of 1,152 consecutive games played ended last week. Now on the disabled list with a fracture in his left wrist, don’t expect Tejada, 31, to have a statistically worthwhile comeback in the second half. He is signed through 2009 on a bad team.
Expect Tejada’s stat line to suffer this season.