Despite dropping out of race, Vilsack is likely to remain a force for 2008
February 26, 2007
Even out of the presidential race, former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack may remain a force for other Democratic hopefuls to reckon with in the months leading up to the Iowa caucuses.
On Friday, Vilsack announced the end of his bid for the Democratic presidential nomination, citing an inability to raise the funds necessary for a competitive campaign. Although Vilsack had been polling fourth among Democrats in Iowa, his endorsement will still be a highly sought prize among other candidates vying for an early advantage in the race.
In his speech Friday, Vilsack predicted he would have won the Iowa caucus, despite trailing in the polls.
Steffen Schmidt, university professor of political science, was less optimistic about Vilsack’s chances.
He said if Vilsack is interested in teaming with another candidate later as a running mate or cabinet appointee, the decision was timed perfectly to avoid a poor showing in the caucuses and the mudslinging that comes with a national campaign.
“This was the right move,” Schmidt said. “If he had come through the Iowa caucuses and come in fourth he would be dead. It would be very difficult for someone to pick someone who did that poorly in his own state as a vice presidential running mate.”
Compared to the large gatherings and media attention garnered by other Democrats such as Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., and Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., Vilsack’s campaign received relatively little attention in or out of Iowa. Schmidt said competing with nationally known figures may have diluted support for Vilsack’s candidacy within the state, resulting in his having difficulty raising funds.
“Why weren’t Iowans saying, ‘I really like Vilsack,’ when they were asked in the polls? That is the question nobody can figure out,” Schmidt said. “I think the reason may be that it is both gravitas, but more, the more superstar celebrity buzz that surrounds Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. When people were asked, those names came up a lot quicker.”
Outside of Iowa, the governor’s relatively little national exposure was a greater obstacle to overcome. Sarah Sunderman, president of the ISU Democrats and senior in liberal studies, said this is part of the reason finances became particularly crucial to Vilsack’s campaign.
“I think a lot of it was that he lacks the name recognition and the media recognition that some of the candidates have received,” Sunderman said. “Some of that goes back to the money issue. Having money allows you to do more campaigning and get your name out more and be more visible.”
Obama especially has gathered influence in Iowa, collecting the endorsements of Democratic Iowa Attorney General Tom Miller and Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald.
Schmidt said the decision by key members of the Iowa Democratic establishment not to support Vilsack may show concern that his candidacy would diminish the influence of the Iowa Caucuses.
“If Vilsack was up there number one or number two and it looked like he was going to win the Iowa caucuses, the other candidates would probably quit coming to Iowa,” Schmidt said.
Sunderman was less convinced the lack of cooperation from Iowa Democrats contributed significantly to Vilsack’s departure.
“Everyone can make their own decisions about who they are going support. It would be very difficult to get everyone behind him,” Sunderman said.
Now out of the race, Vilsack may have to decide who he will support in the caucuses and later campaign.
However, if he has greater national ambitions, Schmidt said Vilsack is likely to pursue the middle ground, working to emphasize the Iowa caucuses, but refusing to endorse any individual candidate.
“If he wants to get picked as a vice president or even in the cabinet, he really can’t endorse anyone because he doesn’t know who is going to win,” Schmidt said.