Americans may be one step closer to enjoying Cuban cigars on U.S. soil without the fear of breaking the law.

The U.S. government believes that Fidel Castro, Cuban leader and one of the world’s longest-serving current heads of state, has cancer and may not live through 2007.

Although the aging dictator is apparently incapacitated, the Cuban government has been able to resist any movement toward democracy, said Omar Sanchez-Sibony, lecturer of political science.

“The regime is coping with his absence better than anybody expected,” he said.

Cuban and American diplomats are not the only ones keeping a close eye on Castro’s health.

Richard Mansbach, professor of political science, said if the report were true, Cuban nationals living in the United States would be the first to celebrate.

“Certainly it would increase the enthusiasm, ambitions and hopes of the immigrant Cuban community in Florida and elsewhere,” Mansbach said.

The response in Cuba, however, is not as easily predicted, Mansbach said. He hasn’t seen much evidence that Cubans are unhappy with the current government.

“I’m not at all sure that it would resonate immediately in Cuba itself,” he said.

With Castro out of the picture, Mansbach said the new leadership, whomever it may be, would probably be more accommodating to the rest of the world, especially economically.

“I do think that a successor regime would probably be more open to external influences,” he said.

Fidel’s younger brother and acting president of Cuba, Raul Castro, will be essential to filling the power vacuum left by his brother’s departure.

Mansbach said, however, that Raul’s new role may be something less than a full successor of his brother.

“They would really want to have a [Raul] Castro around Havana to legitimize their rule,” he said.

If Raul were to assume power permanently, decisions would most likely be more of a group effort, Sanchez-Sibony said.

“A government under Raul Castro, decision-making would not be so personalized around his figure, [and] decisions would be taken more collectively,” he said.

U.S.-Cuban relations may improve in a Fidel-free Cuba, Mansbach said.

“I think the U.S. government would be more willing to take the kind of symbolic and real steps that would [allow] for a successor government to open its doors a little bit,” he said.

Sanchez-Sibony was more skeptical of this possibility.

“The only way that Cuba-U.S. relations would change is if there are increased freedoms, if the Communist party’s out of power,” he said.

The increase of political freedom would be slow at best, Mansbach said.

“My guess is that a new government would not want to do this very quickly,” he said.

As a partial successor, Raul, who is 75 years old, would not be at the reins of Cuba for long.

Sanchez-Sibony said Cuba could face much more uncertainty replacing the second Castro brother.

“Once Raul is out of power, that could very well be the end of communism in Cuba, but again, we’re dealing with a lot of uncertainty here,” he said.