Scientists predict drastic decline in ocean’s edibles

Shane Kelley

Seafood lovers across the world may soon be parting with their favorite meals if recent predictions about the decline of the ocean’s population become a reality.

A recent study released in the journal Science contends that 90 percent of the ocean’s edible species will be depleted by the year 2048.

According to the study, 29 percent of the ocean’s edible species have already disappeared since the 1950s, and the researchers expect the trend to accelerate as the world’s human population grows.

Philip Dixon, professor of statistics and specialist in the area of statistical ecology, said the findings are inconclusive.

“Their model extends about 50 years out from today. It presumes that things stay the way they are and nothing will be done about it,” Dixon said. “It also assumes that their current model is correct.”

Dixon said most of the research paper shows good data gathering and models, but the model displaying the dire prediction is flawed.

“They are extrapolating the events that happened between year 0 and year 29 all the way out to year 100,” Dixon said. “The model is making things seem worse than reality.”

The research also focused on the problem of overfishing and the ramifications this may have on the environment.

“Reductions in abundance and average size, and even extinction of marine species are potential outcomes of overfishing,” said Clay Pierce, collaborating assistant professor in natural resource ecology and management. “The entire ecosystem balance can change in response to decline or disappearance of fished species.”

Pierce added that overfishing is a danger to freshwater species of fish as well.

“Overfishing can have similar effects in freshwater environments,” Clay said. “Because of their smaller scale and well-defined boundaries, lakes and other isolated bodies of fresh water are even more susceptible to overfishing than the oceans.”

The future of edible marine species around the world appears to lie in the hands of the fishing industry, and Dixon remains optimistic they will be able to keep these species from being wiped off the face of the earth.

“If there’s one thing about fishing, it is that people will change their fishing practices,” Dixon said.