Big 12 picks: McIntyre picks Huskers over Iowa State
October 5, 2006
The Big 12 season is in full swing now with a full slate of games, so let’s get to it.
Texas A&M (4-1, 0-1 Big 12) at Kansas (3-2, 0-1 Big 12)
Both of these teams are coming off of heartbreaking losses last week – the Aggies against Texas Tech and Kansas against Nebraska in overtime.
The Kansas offense put together a masterful performance on the road, passing for 405 yards on the Huskers, but also throwing three picks. If the Jayhawks want to win this week, they will have to cut down on the turnovers.
A&M quarterback Stephen McGee had a terrible game against the Red Raiders, going just 9-of-20 for 103 yards, but they were still one play away from defeating Tech and staying among the ranks of the unbeatens. The most telling stat from that game though, was that A&M rushed for 5.3 yards per carry.
If A&M can duplicate that performance and McGee can be effective enough through the air to keep Kansas honest on defense, the Aggies should control the clock and win this one. Texas A&M, 24-17.
THE PICK: TEXAS A&M
Baylor (2-3, 1-0 Big 12) at Colorado (0-5, 0-1 Big 12)
The Bears came through and won their Big 12 opener, making them undefeated in the conference and giving them the inside track to the Big 12 championship game. OK, maybe not, but their 17-3 win over Kansas State was still impressive.
Everyone may be expecting Baylor to win back-to-back conference games for the first time ever in the Big 12, but Colorado actually may have something to say about that.
Everyone put Colorado down for an 0-12 season after they choked harder than a Tigers fan at the sight of a Royals cap against Montana State, but the Buffs have played tough since and may be able to break through with a home game against a shaky Bears offense.
Baylor’s new spread attack hasn’t taken off quite yet, while the Buffalo defense has been moderately successful at times. The Bears won’t win this one though if their leading rusher only goes for 33 yards like last week against the Wildcats.
Colorado gets rid of the goose egg, 16-13.
THE PICK: COLORADO
Oklahoma State (3-1, 0-0 Big 12) at Kansas State (3-2, 0-1 Big 12)
Well, the good news is that Oklahoma State isn’t quite as bad as it was last year, but the Kansas State offense couldn’t find the endzone if you gave it a map and a tour guide.
The bigger problem is that the Wildcat defense is good enough to muck up the game and slow down everyone else’s offense, making the game miserable to watch.
That will be the case against Oklahoma State too. The Wildcats will struggle to move the ball and could repeat turning the ball over five times like last week against Baylor, but the defense should slow Bobby Ried down some.
The Cowboys hung in their two weeks with a tough Houston team and have had plenty of time to prepare for K-State.
The Cowboy offense will come up with two or three big plays and Kansas State will shoot itself in the foot enough times that the Cowboys will win this one in an ugly battle.
Oky State, 24-9.
THE PICK: OKLAHOMA STATE
No. 23 Missouri (5-0, 1-0 Big 12) at Texas Tech (4-1, 1-0 Big 12)
The first of several tests for Missouri is finally here. The Tigers haven’t played anyone of substance yet in 2006, but they’ve taken care of business each week and have padded their stats to the point where they have one of the best defenses in the country.
Texas Tech, on the other hand, struggled in two road games in the nonconference and then needed some heroics to beat the Aggies last week, also on the road.
The Red Raiders return home this week, where they’ve outscored their two opponents 107-3. Granted, those were SE Louisiana and SMU, but impressive nonetheless.
But, Missouri should be better on both sides of the ball than the Aggie team Tech took the field against last week, so it will come down to whether the Tigers can overcome the ever-present Gary Pinkel factor.
With the Tigers facing a road game against Texas A&M next week, Missouri’s hopes to surprise in the North will look a whole lot better if it can at least split these two before a breather against Kansas State.
Missouri survives a second half-charge in this one, 28-27.
THE PICK: MISSOURI
No. 22 Nebraska (4-1, 1-0 Big 12) at Iowa State (3-2, 0-1 Big 12)
That whooshing sound you hear is both of these fan bases letting the air out after holding their breath until the very end of their games last week.
Nebraska survived an overtime thriller against Kansas while the wheels almost came flying off of the ISU bus against Division I-AA Northern Iowa.
Nebraska’s North title hopes would have taken a devastating hit with a loss, but Iowa State would have been in much more trouble if it had fallen to the folks from Cedar Falls.
Iowa State has been a riddle all season, but as time goes on, the Cyclones are struggling to prove that they’re better than the team that nearly lost at home to UNLV and Toledo to start the year.
In fact, after battling back from second half deficits of 21-7 and 27-21 against Northern Iowa, then surviving a Panther missed last-second field goal from 51 yards, all of Iowa State’s home wins have essentially come at the buzzer. Eventually, that luck is going to run out.
Nebraska surely saw UNI quarterback Eric Sanders go bonkers in the first half throwing to the short routes underneath the ISU coverage, so look for the Huskers to use that plan, which coincidently was the same one that threw for 400 plus last year on Iowa State in Lincoln.
Iowa State was behind the entire second half, so the Cyclones had to abandon the running game against the Panthers, but 30 yards for Stevie Hicks is inexcusable.
From here on out, the competition is too good for Iowa State to let teams hang around at home so it’s time for the ISU defense to step up and show it has what it takes to compete in the Big 12 because to date it hasn’t shown anything.
If it comes down to the last play again Saturday in Jack Trice, the Cyclone luck will run out and put the Cyclones in a big hole to start the conference season for the fourth straight year.
Nebraska wins, 34-27
THE PICK: NEBRASKA
No. 7 Texas (4-1, 1-0 Big 12) at No. 14 Oklahoma (3-1, 0-0 Big 12)
The Red River Shootout is here and Texas will try to defend its previous years’ victory for the first time in nearly a decade.
Oklahoma had last week off, as Texas essentially did by playing Sam Houston State.
Oklahoma looked good against Middle Tennessee State one week after the Oregon fiasco, but that doesn’t necessarily sell me on the fact that Oklahoma has woken up.
Paul Thompson is still quarterbacking the Sooners, and I don’t think he can keep the stifling Texas defense honest.
This game surprisingly boils down to little more than whether Adrian Peterson will be able to run effectively enough to allow Oklahoma to control the ball and keep Texas off the field.
I say the answer is a resounding no. Texas is allowing just 1.4 yards per carry and just slightly over 30 per game, putting Oklahoma in a position from which Paul Thompson will have to make the big plays to win the game.
Couple that with Oklahoma’s defense being ranked in the bottom third of the conference, and you have a recipe for disaster.
This is a rivalry game and Oklahoma should be able to keep it close until late, but I think Texas is just too much for the Sooners.
‘Horns roll, 38-27.
THE PICK: TEXAS