Point/Counterpoint
August 30, 2006
Each week Daily football reporters Brett McIntyre and Grant Wall will go back and forth, debating the state of the ISU program as well as the landscape of college football. Look for their opinions in each issue of Gridiron as well as online during weeks in which Iowa State is on the road.
The ISU season is one-half promise, one-half problem. On one hand, this may be the most talented team assembled not only under Dan McCarney, but in the history of ISU football. On the other, the Cyclones face a formidable schedule that could beat them up to the tune of a .500 season. The only sure thing about the 2006 football schedule is that it will be one wild ride.
Brett McIntyre: I think one thing people need to remember, this may be the most talented team on the offensive side of the ball. There is definitely talent on the defensive side of the ball but there is little experience and very little depth at key positions.
Grant Wall: The defense will be shaky to start, but as coach McCarney is fond of saying, once the Big 12 schedule starts, nobody’s a rookie anymore. Early games against Toledo, UNLV and Northern Iowa will give the defense – especially the secondary – a chance to work out the kinks. When conference play rolls around, the defense will be ready to play.
FASTTRAK
2006 Cyclone
Football Schedule
Aug. 31 – vs. Toledo*
Sept. 9 – vs. UNLV
Sept. 16 – at Iowa**
Sept. 23 – at Texas
Sept. 30 – vs. UNI
(Family Weekend)
Oct. 7 – vs. Nebraska
Oct. 14 – at Oklahoma
Oct. 21 – vs. Texas Tech
(Homecoming)
Oct. 28 – at Kansas State
Nov. 4 – vs. Kansas
Nov. 11 – at Colorado
Nov. 18 – vs. Missouri
*televised by Mediacom Connections (channel 22)
**televised by ESPN
How do you think the Cyclones will fare this
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There isn’t a better defensive coordinator in the Big 12 than Iowa State’s John Skladany. He worked wonders two seasons ago with a defense that had many newcomers and if history is a guide, he can do it again.
Brett: Interesting. You left out games against Iowa and Texas between the UNLV and Northern Iowa games. Aren’t they supposed to be any good?
Grant: Yes, Iowa and Texas are supposed to be good. But the game against the Hawkeyes is a rivalry game and time and time again we’ve seen how records and rankings don’t matter in games like that. Just one season ago, Iowa was No. 8 in the nation and was run out of the stadium by a Cyclone team that – and let’s be honest – wants games against its intrastate rival more. Texas is also breaking in a new quarterback and will be experimenting with its offensive system. I’m not saying that Iowa State will dethrone the defending national champions, but I don’t think this game will be the blowout everyone seems to expect.
Brett: Regardless, the key to this season is going to be injuries and whether Iowa State can stay away from them. Outside of wide receiver and maybe running back, I don’t think there is any position where Cyclone fans feel totally comfortable with the team’s depth.
Grant: You are correct. We’ve already seen what injuries have done during practice. The Cyclones lost defensive end Kurtis Taylor for the season, benching a player who had locked down a job on the first unit. It made a line that was becoming the defense’s strong point into another question mark.
Brett: So we’re in agreement that barring injuries this Cyclone team has the potential to win some games.
Grant: Completely.
Brett: So, how many games will Iowa State win and what will the team have to do for a successful season?
When you look at the schedule I think the Cyclones will be in a position where they’ll probably be favored in all but one home game – at the worst – and will probably be underdogs in every road game but one. Iowa State simply must take care of the homefield, i.e. undefeated, because with the road schedule the Cyclones face, they can’t afford to give away home games as they have the past two years – think Missouri 2004 and Baylor 2005. I think 7-5 is a likely outcome and a reasonable success, but Iowa State cannot settle for anything worse than 6-6.
Grant: Yes, 6-6 is a low mark for a successful season. When McCarney took over at Iowa State in 1995, a bowl was a goal ISU fans could only dream of. In 12 years, coach Mac has turned the program into one that expects a postseason appearance at the end of each season. Now it’s time for the next step. An outright Big 12 North title and a trip to one of the upper-Big 12 bowls (Alamo, Holiday or Cotton) is something the Cyclones are on the verge of attaining.
That being said, this isn’t the year for Holiday Bowl aspirations. The Cyclones schedule is too tough for the team to earn nine or 10 wins. Iowa State has a legitimate preseason national title contender (Texas) as well as three more teams with an outside chance at a BCS birth (Iowa, Oklahoma and Nebraska). Add a Texas Tech team that feasts on inexperienced pass defenses, and Iowa State is in for a dogfight. The Cyclones could steal a win from any of these teams (Iowa and Nebraska are the most likely) but because of the schedule a seven- or eight-win season is a mild success.
Brett: The most important thing will be the Cyclones ability to win early and win late in the season. It’s imperative that they take care of business against Toledo and UNLV, and at the back end of the schedule with a road date in Boulder, where Iowa State never plays well, and the finale with Missouri.
If the Cyclones suffer a brain cramp and get ambushed by Toledo, you could easily start 1-3 in the face and after UNI, be 2-3 heading into a nasty three-game stretch with Nebraska, a road game with Oklahoma and a date with Texas Tech. Add an interesting road game with Kansas State on the end of that, and you could be looking at a situation in which things could snowball and get ugly in a hurry if the defense doesn’t gel.
Grant: While Toledo might test the Cyclones, replacing nine of 11 starters on offense might be too tall of an order for the Rockets to handle. Iowa State should start 2-0 and has the very real possibility of ending its season with four consecutive wins (Kansas State, Kansas, Colorado and Missouri). The bookends of the season will be key.
Everyone knows the middle of Iowa State’s schedule is brutal, but there are a few manageable games in their midseason test (Iowa, Northern Iowa and Nebraska). Iowa State will be fine this season if it starts strong, finishes well and survives the six week span from Sept. 16 to Oct. 21.
Brett: Final predictions? I’ll say 7-5 and a late string of victories sends the Cyclones bowling again.
Grant: I hate agreeing with someone like McIntyre, but I have to in this case. I see seven or eight wins for the Cyclones, including another upset over the Hawkeyes in Iowa City.
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