Bad Academy Awards puns are flying. There’s the “Brokeback backlash” … the little film that “crashed” the party … the one about “Brokeback Mountain” peaking too early.

Although the cowboy love story “Brokeback Mountain” has been established as a solid favorite for the best-picture Oscar, the ensemble drama “Crash” has an ardent following and some late-season momentum that could make it a surprise winner.

When there’s a clear Oscar front-runner, that film almost always goes home with the big trophy, but upsets do happen and late-surging films have pulled off come-from-behind wins.

Just look back to the 1998 awards season.

“The year of `Saving Private Ryan,’ everybody was certain it was a lock,” said film historian Leonard Maltin. “People thought it was a sure thing to win best picture given the subject matter (D-Day heroics) and the people behind it (Steven Spielberg and Tom Hanks), until the middle of December.”

That’s when a little film called “Shakespeare in Love” showed up. Oscar voters, along with everyone else, fell in love with it, and although Spielberg won best director, “Shakespeare in Love” grabbed the top prize.

The previous 77 Oscar ceremonies have had their share of unexpected twists, mostly in the acting categories. The best-picture announcement often has proven an anticlimactic no-brainer at the end of the evening, but a few unanticipated winners have shaken things up:

For best picture of 1948, the poignant drama “Johnny Belinda,” a homegrown Hollywood production, seemed to have the edge, only to lose to Laurence Olivier’s “Hamlet.”

Three years later, the song-and-dance romance “An American in Paris” pulled off a best-picture stunner over dramatic heavyweights “A Place in the Sun” and “A Streetcar Named Desire.”

The next year, Gary Cooper’s Western “High Noon” looked as though it would ride into the winner’s circle, but the splashy circus tale “The Greatest Show on Earth” came out on top.

The 1968 best-picture award went the musical route again as “Oliver!” became an upset winner over the more popular musical “Funny Girl” and the palace-intrigue saga “The Lion in Winter.”

This time around, most signs point to “Brokeback Mountain” – Ang Lee’s tale of two rugged Western men (Heath Ledger and Jake Gyllenhaal) in a doomed love affair – as the likely best-picture champ.

Since it debuted in December, “Brokeback Mountain” has swept through awards season, winning best drama at the Golden Globes.