LETTER: Future not as rosy as columnist predicts
February 9, 2005
In response to Jeremy Oehlert’s Feb. 8 column (“I can’t wait ’til the future gets here”), I have to disagree with several things. Although it is true that technology grows exponentially, that is a trend at the moment. Infinite growth is not actually possible; this simply reflects the inherent limitations of exponential projections for real-world applications. As to the anti-aging research, we’re still a long way from that being practical. Also, there will very likely be limitations to what such treatments can do, and cannot stave off death forever; plus, the odds of Food and Drug Administration approval are likely to be somewhere around zero, as the current lines of research involve various levels of human genetic engineering.
With regard to the section on nanofibers: Remember, these things are tiny, fractions of a millimeter in length. Towers built out of this are easily 22nd-century realm or beyond. What carbon nanofibers exist now are being researched, since at present it is impossible to produce them in any meaningful quantity for industry.
As to the space elevators, this is actually two separate concepts: skyhooks and magnetic rails. Skyhooks are ground-to-orbit structures relying on electric-powered elevator cars to slowly lift into orbit, while magnetic rails literally blast their payload into orbit with a short, intense push.
By the way, a magnetic rail cannot be used on Earth without instantly incinerating its payload (good old friction), and the gravitational forces could not be survived by any living being — 300 G’s or more — and that’s just to break Earth’s gravity. Since humans can only survive 10 G’s for about a fraction of a minute, we won’t be using that anytime soon. The only application of a magnetic rail on Earth would be similar to a booster rocket: The actual ship/payload would have a small boost, but would have to do the rest itself.
The predictions are going to happen, except some will not happen as soon as the column leads readers to believe.
Josh Cornwall
Freshman
Biochemistry