Cyclones just want a Dance invitation

By By Grant Wall

Daily Staff Writer

The road the ISU men”s basketball team is traveling is a far different and much nicer one than the route it was taking just a month ago.

On Jan. 22 the Cyclones lost at home to Colorado, their first home loss to an unranked opponent in almost two years. The team followed that loss with a poor showing at Kansas State, falling into last place in the Big 12 at 0-5.

The Cyclones took the floor against No. 13 Oklahoma just three days later, with the distinct possibility of another loss on their hands. But somewhere during the game, the evil Mr. Hyde left the building and was replaced by the kinder, gentler Dr. Jekyll.

Iowa State went on to beat the Sooners and have since rolled to seven consecutive conference wins, culminating with a stunning 63-61 overtime upset of No. 2 Kansas on Saturday.

‘Everyone has talked about the losing streak, losing streak, losing streak,’ ISU coach Wayne Morgan said. ‘Now we can talk about a winning streak.’

Now, what was unthinkable just weeks ago is becoming more and more possible.

The win over Kansas puts Iowa State on the NCAA tournament bubble, standing with one foot in the tournament and one foot out. The only question that remains is whether the Cyclones can take one more step forward.

The situation

With four games remaining in the regular season, the Cyclones” destiny rests in their own hands.

All four games are easily winnable for Iowa State, but nothing can be taken for granted in a league like the Big 12.

Iowa State is tied with Texas for fifth place in the Big 12, though the Cyclones hold the tiebreaker over the Longhorns, thanks to their 92-80 overtime victory on Feb. 5.

The top four teams receive first-round byes in the Big 12 tournament, and Iowa State is in position to be one of the teams taking the first round off.

The Cyclones are also moving up in the national Ratings Percentage Index lists. RPI is a mathematical formula showing strength of schedule and how a team does against that schedule. Iowa State is ranked No. 47 in the most recent Sagarin ratings and at No. 50 on collegerpi.com. A top 45 rating is usually enough to put a team into the NCAA tournament, though it is not a guarantee.

After spending much of the season with a low RPI, wins over four ranked teams — including Kansas, the No. 1 RPI team in the nation — have the Cyclones moving up the charts.

‘Early in the season we weren”t winning on the road, and now we just beat a quality opponent,’ senior center Jared Homan said. ‘Kansas is a great team and we beat them on the road.

‘We didn”t win a lot of road games earlier, and now we”ve won three in a row and two against ranked opponents. They have to look at that.’

Looking ahead

The traditional school of thought says that 20 wins — especially in a conference as competitive as the Big 12 — punches a team”s NCAA tournament ticket.

Iowa State holds a 15-8 record and should have at least 18 with wins against Nebraska, Missouri and Colorado. Sprinkle in the team”s only remaining wild card game — Tuesday”s date with Texas A&M — and the Cyclones could be at 19 wins when the regular season draws to a close.

Four more regular season wins and a victory in the Big 12 tournament gives Iowa State that magic 20.

‘The main thing is we have to win the rest of our games,’ Homan said. ‘If we win the rest of our games, there”s no doubt the committee can”t pick us.’

Two victories in the Big 12 tournament will put Iowa State safely at, if not over, the 20-win plateau.

One win in the conference tournament would seal the deal, though this Cyclone team isn”t taking anything for granted.

‘We”re coming,’ guard Curtis Stinson said. ‘We”re not asking for nobody to give us anything. We didn”t get a lot of respect as it is, so we”re not asking anyone to give us anything.

‘We”re just telling them, “Here we come.”‘

Best-case scenario

Obviously, the best situation for the Cyclones is to win out. Four wins in their last four games is possible – even likely.

Although Texas A&M has a 16-7 overall record, the Aggies are just 5-7 in the Big 12, after jumping out to an 11-0 nonconference record with wins over teams like Chicago State and North Carolina A&T.

Iowa State closes its schedule with home games against Nebraska and Missouri and a finale on the road against Colorado. Those three teams are all in the bottom half of the conference.

‘We can play with anybody in the country as long as we stick to what we have to do,’ Stinson said. ‘That”s what we”re doing right now. We just have to grab it. We can”t just ask for it.’

Worst-case scenario

After starting the Big 12 slate with a five-game losing streak, the Cyclones have a seven-game winning streak on their hands.

The point? Iowa State is a streaky team.

In a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately world, dropping two games coming in could prove costly.

Two losses in its last four games would put Iowa State at 17-10, meaning it would, most likely, need to win the conference tournament to earn the Big 12 champion”s automatic NCAA tournament berth.

The Cyclones can afford one more loss before postseason play if they still want to be in the Big Dance.

If the Cyclones close out the season .500, they may find themselves favorites to make a return trip to the NIT final four.

Will they or won”t they?

With a postseason berth all but guaranteed, is Iowa State headed the NCAA Tournament or back to the NIT?

Grant Wall, Daily sports editor

NCAA. Iowa State has five wins over ranked teams, with four of those victories coming during its second-half rebirth. The Cyclones have seven conference wins now, and by the end of the regular season should have 10, at the least. Their victories over ranked opponents and the way they are ending the season will push them into the Big Dance.

Nathan Wilcke, Daily assistant sports editor

NCAA. Seven wins in a row in a major conference is nothing to sneer at, and these wins are coming at the right time. Like in college football, it”s better to lose early than lose late. Even if the Cyclones split their last four games, when the NCAA selection committee asks ‘What have you done for me lately?’ they won”t have to look far.

Lucas Grundmeier, Daily editor in chief

NIT. All the Cyclones have proven this year is that they are a streaky team. Their next losing skid, whenever it begins, will come at the worst possible time — when the NCAA selection committee is looking closely at the bubble teams. The home loss to Colorado is still a killer, and Iowa State has no high-profile non-conference wins since Virginia has proven to be a fraud.

Diana Homan,

Daily men”s basketball beat reporter

NCAA. Despite the team”s 0-5 start in the conference, the selection committee can”t overlook Iowa State”s recent success, which includes wins over four ranked teams — two of which were on the road. Iowa State”s RPI has leaped dramatically, and it has proven it can hold its own against the powerhouses. With a chance to finish as high as third in one of the country”s top conferences, Iowa State can”t be denied an invitation.