All tied up
January 16, 2004
The Iowa caucuses are in a four-way statistical tie between Howard Dean, John Kerry, Dick Gephardt and John Edwards, promising a photo finish for the winner Monday night.
A three-day Reuters/MSNBC/ Zogby International Poll released Thursday showed Kerry, a Massachusetts senator, with 21.6 percent of the vote of likely Iowa caucus-goers. Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean and Rep. Dick Gephardt, D-Mo., were tied at 20.9 percent. Sen. John Edwards, D-N.C., has climbed significantly to 17.1 percent. With a 4.5 percent margin of error, all of the leading candidates have to be considered front-runners.
“For a pollster, this is like standing on the San Andreas fault,” John Zogby wrote on his Web site, www.zogby.com. “This race is actually a four-way statistical dead heat.”
The tightened race comes at a time when the candidates have become less than friendly toward each other. Dean and Gephardt criticize one other openly at rallies, each attempting to discredit the other’s past record.
The polls between candidates have never been closer, but ISU student activists said they are confident their candidate will win on Monday.
Jesse Wilcox, president of Cyclones for Dean, said the polls numbers aren’t an accurate indication of the real support for Dean.
“[Dean] has an appeal to lots of people, including those who don’t get polled,” said Wilcox, senior in biology.
“After all, the polls aren’t a good indication for who will caucus. They’re a set of numbers that are somewhat of a good indication, but not a very accurate one.”
Other than the four front-runners, no other candidate is a serious contender in Iowa. The closest was retired Army Gen. Wesley Clark with 3 percent, who, along with Sen. Joe Lieberman, D-Conn., decided to skip Iowa in the presidential campaign.
Clark was followed by Rep. Dennis Kucinich, D-Ohio, with 3 percent and Lieberman with 1 percent.
Carol Moseley Braun, who dropped out of the race Thursday, had 1 percent and the Rev. Al Sharpton was at less than 1 percent.
With such a tight race, ISU students are rallying for their candidates stronger than ever.
Beth Wilson, president of Student for Edwards, said she believes Edwards will rise above the tie and claim the caucuses Monday.
“He’ll definitely win with the momentum that we have right now following the Des Moines Register’s endorsement,” said Wilson, senior in management. “People are tired of all the negativity in the other candidates.”
Wilson said she believes each of the candidates is strong, making the final decision difficult for voters.
“It shows the great candidates we have this year, and the great Democrats,” she said. “All of them are qualified for the presidency.
“What else could be better for the Iowa caucus system, when we have these four candidates that each bring something to the table?”