Professor: War in North Korea may be next step after Iraq
April 3, 2003
After the Iraqi people are liberated, North Korea may be the next target of American efforts, said ISU political science professor Young Kihl during a presentation Wednesday.
Kihl addressed “North Korea’s Nuclear Standoff” to a crowd of about 25 in the Oak Room of the Memorial Union.
“North Korea feels threatened that [nuclear weapons] are the only way they can defend an outside threat,” he said.
Kihl said the nuclear threat posed to the United States and North Korea’s neighboring countries by North Korea can be defined as a crisis.
He said a crisis has three key points: surprise, short duration of decision time and high risk of war.
“The Bush administration refuses to call this a crisis because of bargaining and military purposes,” he said.
Kihl said North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong Il, is motivated and intelligent.
“He’s certainly not stupid, Kim is a smart and intelligent man,” he said. “He’s planning a highly strategic nuclear game with the United States.”
Kihl said North Korea’s regime has some problems and collapse is talked about.
He said the United Nations imports food for the people and malnutrition is a problem in the country.
“The North Korean regime may or may not continue because of problems internally,” he said.
Kihl said he believes Kim is using the time the United States is at war with Iraq to prepare and plan for a future war.
“While the U.S. is preoccupied with the situation in Iraq, Kim has been harassing the Bush administration with war threats,” he said. “North Korean leadership is somewhere hiding, studying the media coverage in Iraq, thinking that they’ll be next.”
Kihl said there are some options for U.S. action in North Korea: do nothing, use force or use diplomacy.
“Do nothing is not acceptable, so the only way to solve this is by use of force, which means war,” he said. “North Korea may be next after Iraq.”
J. Ryan Smallen, senior in political science, presented part of the speech with Kihl.
He said he lived on the Korean Peninsula as a member of the U.S. Air Force for two years. Smallen said the North Korean army has large capabilities in case of a war.
“North Korea has a large army, upwards of about 4.7 million people with a tremendous amount of artillery,” he said. “U.S. and South Korean military forces could suffer 300,000 to 500,000 casualties within the first 90 days of fighting [in case of war],” he said.
Kihl said the North Korean military possesses missiles with capabilities of traveling long distances.
He said Taepodong 1 missiles can travel up to 2,000 kilometers, making South Korea and even Japan targets. Kihl said Taepodong 2 missiles can travel up to 8,000 kilometers, making the western U.S. a target.
Lindsay Hales, freshman in exercise science, said she attended the lecture because she is interested in the conflict with North Korea.
“I am in the [National] Guard and I just wanted to hear more about the North Korean conflict because I probably will be involved soon,” she said.
Luke Schuldt, junior in agricultural studies, said he attended the speech because the conflict in North Korea is a large part of current world issues.
“I’m interested in world events that are going on right now, so I thought, why not come see what’s going on,” he said.