In its Nov. 6 editorial “New outlook this year on election night,” the editorial board erroneously attributed the “shift from election-night hyperbole to election night prudence” to “a new respect for the uncertainties associated with playing the percentage game.” I only wish this were true. The media hasn’t “learned the perils of election-night prophesy”; rather, they have temporarily lost their crystal ball.

Through some divine act or perhaps just the mistake of a now-fired intern, exit poll data was unavailable for last night’s elections. The media’s usual confidence in declaring winners is based on exit polls, which allow the media to tell us about voting behavior before the results of the election are final, and most notably, before the voting is even finished. I have seen exit polls data used to declare the projected winner in a race even before 5 p.m. Doing this may compromise the integrity of our voting system, as publicized exit poll data could discourage some or rally others.

Take an imaginary voter, I’ll call her Mabel, who had planned to cast her ballot for Bob M. Politician. If Mabel hears on the radio that Mr. Politician was only getting 40 percent of the vote at 6 p.m., she might decide her vote wouldn’t matter and stay home. Likewise, this data could be used to rally voters who weren’t sure whether their vote would be needed, when exit polls show a race to be tight. Last night the networks apologized for the lack of exit polls data, stating that the agency that conducts exit polls was unable to do so this year, due to a system problem. The reasons weren’t elaborated, though I considered it one of the most newsworthy events of the evening.

As it turns out, exit poll data were unavailable nationwide, most likely creating media panic and forcing them into a position of “election-night prudence.” I would like to know if this problem could become chronic.

The absence of election-night prophecy will probably end as soon as the unnamed exit-poll agency gets its act together. In my Web search today for a little more information on this story, I found virtually nothing. I did find a few laments from media giants such as CNN that it did not have exit poll data for predicting voter behavior in the 2004 election. All I can say is, thank goodness!

Scott Bair

Graduate Student

Marriage and Family Therapy