Close competition in Iowa political races could shake up representation in the state Legislature, resulting in a trade of power in the House of Representatives and Senate after the Nov. 5 election.

Republicans have held control of the state House since 1993. They’ve controlled the state Senate since 1997. The party’s power might wane, however, since district lines were redrawn after the 2000 U.S. Census results, shaking the grounds of Iowa policy making.

Eighty-five incumbents of the 150-member Legislature are listed on the November ballot — 64 from the House and 21 from the Senate. With the new district lines, incumbents often face other incumbents, possibly resulting in 15 percent of legislators being new to their seats after the election.

Steffen Schmidt, university professor of political science, said this shake-up concern is not because of new people entering the Iowa Legislature and familiar people leaving. The shake-up rumor is coming from the projections of which party will come out victorious and hold the majority of power.

“New blood doesn’t necessarily create huge changes,” Schmidt said. “It is important to keep some incumbents in office because they keep things running smoothly, and they teach the new members how to behave. But with each Iowa legislative election, turnover in representation is always large.”

Schmidt said the shake-up would occur if the Democrats take over the majority.

“I predict Vilsack to win the gubernatorial race because Gross is falling behind in the polls,” he said. “If that happens and the Democrats regain power in the Legislature, they will get lots more of their laws, their policies and their issues on a strong platform.”

The neutralizing factor, he said, is the weak economy.

“Even if the Democrats come in, the state has so little money to work with that [few] new programs and initiatives can be carried out,” Schmidt said.

Because races for some of the seats are so close, candidates and party representatives hope voter turnout will be stronger for the off-year elections.

Matt Grewe, secretary of ISU College Republicans, said with the races in some areas as close as they are, a large youth vote could determine who the legislators are and who the governor is.

“I believe that for the major races, the student voice, if loud enough, could determine everything just because there are so many students in the state,” said Grewe, freshman in meteorology. “We could really affect the outcome.”

Schmidt agreed.

“In eastern Iowa especially, and other areas where the races are close, there is great tension, excitement and interest,” he said. “Those factors create greater voter turnout.”

Molly Scherrman, residence hall chairwoman for ISU Democrats, said Democrats as governor and leaders in the Capitol could cause a big change for college students.

“Hopefully, the discrepancies over allocations in the budget would be agreed upon which could really affect funding for higher education,” said Scherrman, senior in psychology. “That would be a huge gain for students.”