An ISU economics professor said Tuesday he believes building a new mall in Ames, combined with a proposed mall in West Des Moines, could kill business at North Grand Mall.

Ken Stone spoke to the Ames City Council at its Tuesday meeting. The professor of economics in agriculture said there is a good chance consumers would leave North Grand Mall for bigger, newer stores nearby.

“I don’t think [North Grand] could continue to exist in the current method of operation in those circumstances,” he said.

The council asked Stone to analyze how the proposed mall would affect the economy of Ames and the surrounding areas. Stone just completed a similar study on the impact of the Coral Ridge Mall, which opened in 1999, on the Iowa City area.

Wolford Development, a Chattanooga, Tenn. based development company, approached the city of Ames in April with a plan to build a 700,000-square foot mall northeast of the Interstate 35 and 13th Street interchange.

The city has to rezone the land before construction could begin, but the president of the company has estimated the building could be open as early as fall 2004.

Stone said a new mall could generate as much as $50 million in sales, with Story County consumers spending about $44 million of that.

But people who are spending money at one mall won’t spend it in other places, including the existing North Grand Mall.

“Total sales doesn’t come from outer space,” Stone said. “It has to come from existing stores.”

He said he doesn’t think downtown businesses will be badly affected if the new mall were to go in.

“I have a feeling downtown will be OK,” Stone said. “It took its licks when North Grand came in originally.”

Stone based most of his opinions on his study of the Coral Ridge Mall.

He found the mall, which is almost twice the size of the proposed mall, increased sales in Johnson County by more than $32 million in the first year.

It also drew more than $84 million from existing businesses in several surrounding counties.

“You look at this as a zero-sum game,” Stone said. “It’s a little bit from this county, a little bit from that county.”

Stone said a new mall in Ames would have a similar impact on the area.