Thirty years ago, it would have been science fiction.

The world’s second most populous nation – the world’s largest democracy – popularized the “Third World” non-aligned movement among developing nations, while much of the developed world raced to build bigger and more destructive nuclear weapons. Today, India not only has gone nuclear but is engaged in nuclear brinkmanship of Cold War proportions.

However, there is one large contrast between 1970s-style d‚tente and the current diplomatic meltdown between Pakistan and India: a huge power has locked horns with a smaller and less stable border state. In such a showdown, nuclear weapons appear to act as the great equalizer. The situation has escalated to the point in India where many governments have pulled out their non-essential diplomatic staff and the United Nations has sent its employees there home as well.

Kashmir is landlocked at the top of India, with portions controlled by India, Pakistan and China. A rugged stretch of the Himalayas are the only permanent feature on a Kashmiri map, for territory continually changes hands on the landscape. Pakistan ceded part of the Karakoram area to China in 1963. Twenty years later, India began occupation just south of there. According to the Web site of India’s American Embassy, parts of northern Kashmir are “illegally occupied” by Pakistan and China. India is now pushing to rid its northern region of what it calls the Pakistani terrorist threat.

If Pervez Musharraf is any indicator, the Pakistani government neither wields tremendous control over the people of Kashmir nor the military leadership in the area. The assistance he gave the United States in the hunt for al-Qaeda did not win a great deal of popular support for Musharraf.

More salient than popular support for Musharraf, however, is the cohesiveness of the Pakistani military. Unfortunately for the man who ascended to power through a military overthrow of the government, many of the leaders in Kashmir are separatists, long-time local leaders who have taken charge in whatever sectarian vehicle will take them to power, including the Muslim United Front and the All Parties Freedom Conference.

This dynamic creates several scenarios in which a nuclear attack could begin. While Indian law prevents the military from making a first-strike nuclear attack, Pakistan has no such provision. Shaun Gregory, a reader in international security at the University of Bradford in England, believes Pakistan could be induced to strike with nuclear weapons if India conquered part of Pakistan’s territory, destroyed a significant portion of the Pakistani military or forced Pakistan into economic or political instability. Because so many Indian troops are already at the line of control, a major incursion on Pakistani territory could draw nuclear fire. On top of these possibilities, Gregory notes that nuclear war could begin as the result of battlefield judgments by a regional commander or if the weapons fall into the hands of the insurgent groups who answer to no one but themselves.

With the advent of nuclear war in Asia, the India-Pakistan dispute ceases to be a trans-border concern and becomes a truly international issue, with the wild card being China.

How will the silent third of the Kashmiri trinity react in the event of nuclear war in one of its territories? Considering that China assisted Pakistan in starting its nuclear program, and the Indian nuclear program began largely as a security measure against China, the potential for destabilization and conflict among major world powers should not be underestimated. Because most foreign governments removed their staff from the area, they have unequivocally voiced their unwillingness to risk the lives of their citizens as well as an unwillingness to get involved in the conflict.

While America and Russia are meeting to discuss nuclear reduction and Russia is spearheading a regional attempt at negotiating out of fear of an impending nuclear war, the events in Asia leave us unable to offer diplomatic intervention. Our only hope is that science fiction does not truly visit our planet.

Rachel Faber Machacha is a graduate student in international development studies from Emmetsburg.