Editor’s note: This is the first of a two-part series.

A breakdown of the National League will appear in tomorrow’s Daily. Opening Day is Sunday, March 31.

A.L. Central

1

The return of a healthy Frank Thomas is just the spark needed to ignite the fire in an already explosive lineup for the South-Siders, which features five players with the potential for 30 home runs. And don’t be surprised if center fielder Kenny Lofton resurrects his career with his former division rivals.

Defense is inconsistent and starting pitching flopped a big one this spring, but the addition of Todd Ritchie, a solid pitcher on a miserable team last year, will make for a solid No. 2 man behind ace Mark Buehrle (especially with Chicago’s un-Pirate-like run support). The rest of the rotation is green, but with this lineup pumping out double-digit runs a couple nights a week, getting to the ninth inning and closer Keith Foulke (42 saves) with any lead may be enough.

If they play like they did in 2000 and an inexperienced pitching staff comes around before the All-Star break, the Sox might just be the only American League team capable of giving the Yankees a run for their money.

2

These no-name upstarts from a year ago will try to rebound from a disappointing second half after their surprising start. But let’s be serious, good starting pitching and phenomenal defense alone won’t cut it in the American League, especially in the same division as the White Sox. The lineup is average at best, lacking power and low on experience.

The defense will be there. Minnesota will bring the best defensive team in baseball to the park this year, but the fate of this team rests solely on the shoulders of their top four starters – Brad Radke, Eric Milton, Joe Mays and Rick Reed. All four can be top-tier starters in this league, but with a terrible bullpen, they’ll need to be good for at least six or seven innings every time out there.

Odds are, that just ain’t gonna happen.

3

It’s going to be a long year for Indians’ fans who’ve grown accustomed to division titles and powerful lineups. Sure, first baseman Jim Thome (49 home runs, 124 runs-batted-in) is back, but who’s going to pitch to him when all that’s waiting on deck is Travis Fryman and Russell Branyan? Some say this could be Branyan’s breakout season, but the guy strikes out more than Squiggy at the Pizza Bowl (315 at bats, 132 strikeouts).

Cleveland does sport the best starting rotation in the division, led by a core group of young studs. The bullpen is just as strong.

Unfortunately for Cleveland, though, too much was lost this off-season. And not nearly enough was picked up.

Goodbye, Juan Gonzalez. Adios, Marty Cordova. See ya soon, Kenny Lofton. Farewell, Roberto Alomar. Hello . Brady Anderson? Welcome aboard . Alex Escobar?

There’s going to be a severe power outage in Cleveland. And it’s going to last all summer.

4

There wasn’t much to brag about last season in Kansas City. Hitting – weak. Starting pitching – weaker. Bullpen – inconsistent. Defense – adequate at best.

The Royals made a couple of decent acquisitions this off-season, but no one with any real star power. The big pick-up was outfielder Chuck Knoblauch, a decent lead-off hitter who knows how to get on base effectively (.382 career on-base percentage).

Pitching isn’t any more promising, lacking a 10-game winner.

Fourth in a weak division perhaps is being a tad generous to the Royals. If they go ahead and trade away first baseman Mike Sweeney (.304, 29 HR 99 RBIs), the closest thing this team has to a superstar and who’s entering a contract year, they may be subleasing the Central basement for the summer yet again.

5

Some say hitting wins games. Others say it’s pitching. Bad news for Detroit – the Tigers have neither.

Tony Clark led the team with a measly 75 RBIs last year. And he’s gone.

Third baseman Dean Palmer will need to be uncharacteristically healthy all year if the Tigers want any chance of holding their own against even average teams. Newly acquired Dimitri Young and outfielder Robert Fick are solid .300 hitters, but these aren’t big-time ball players; they’re just the best the Tigers have.

Defense is suspect, and pitching? That’s where things get even uglier. Jeff Weaver and Steve Sparks are sound, but the rest of the starters are basically a “let’s see what these guys can do” work-in-progress. And even if the inconsistent pitching staff has a superb season, it won’t save the Tigers from hovering near the cellar.

– Tim Paluch

A.L. West

1

Unfortunately for the M’s, things can only go downhill after 116 wins last season. Fortunately, that still means about 95 wins and the top spot in the West.

The element of surprise is gone, so pitchers Freddy Garcia and Jamie Moyer, who won 38 combined games last year, won’t catch anyone off guard, but they will be good. They still have one of the American League’s best closers in Kazuhiro Sasaki, who saved 45 games last year.

The offense will be able to hold its own, with Japanese sensation Ichiro Suzuki leading the way. Mike Cameron who roams center field with right fielder Ichiro combine for one potent and solid defensive outfield. Bret Boone hit 37 home runs and hit .331 with 141 runs-batted-in last season, all MVP-like numbers and might be the best second baseman in the American League. Designated hitter Edgar Martinez (.306, 23 HR, 116 RBIs) and first baseman John Olerud (.302, 21 HR, 95 RBIs) are both good but aging.

A trip to the playoffs is a lock, but until the M’s figure out that power pitching (the Yankees) beats finesse pitching, they’ll only be watching the World Series.

2

Who needs Jason Giambi?

The A’s offense is solid despite losing Giambi to the Yankees. Jermaine Dye and Miguel Tejada turned into offensive stars last year, but with Giambi gone, look for the number of good pitches – and their batting average – to dip some. They acquired outfielder David Justice, but his big-number days are over and he is a liability defensively.

The A’s no-names are their best players with a great group of pitchers who won a combined 69 games. Tim Hudson (18 wins) leads a group with Barry Zito (17), Mark Mulder (21) and Cory Lidle (13) in what might be one of the top three staffs in the AL. None had an earned-run average above 3.59.

Now if they can only score runs they might still be a postseason caliber team.

3

Call it a hunch, but the Rangers won’t be as bad as people think.

They improved a pitching staff which- and this can’t be stressed enough- was absolutely terrible in 2001 by adding Chan Ho Park. If new acquisition Ismael Valdes can get his act together and Kenny Rogers shores up his problems the staff might be OK. Might be. Of course they still have John Rocker, who is a very shaky closer, just what a team that blew leads in 52 of 89 losses needs.

Jeff Zimmerman, who saved 28 games last year, will likely be the closer instead of Rocker, but not even Chuck Norris could save this bunch.

Offensively the Rangers are stacked. They have the games best player, Alex Rodriguez, who can hit .318 with 52 home runs and 135 RBIs and play great defense.

They have two-time MVP Juan Gonzalez, the best catcher in the game in Ivan Rodriguez and first baseman Rafael Palmeiro, who might be the most underrated offensive threat ever.

Pitchers will fear these batters, but batters will feast on the Rangers pitching.

4

Injuries and bad all around seasons by would-be stars cost the Angels in 2001, and it will more than likely cost them again in 2002.

Troy Glaus, who hit 41 home runs and drove in 108 runs, and Garret Anderson, who had 28 home runs with 123 RBIs, are good but neither them nor any of the Angels’ projected starters hit over .300 in 2001.

Tim Salmon and Darin Erstad both had dismal seasons. Salmon hit .227 with 17 home runs and 49 RBIs while Erstad hit .258 with nine home runs and 63 RBIs, but both need to bounce back – or find themselves on the trade block come mid-season with no real takers.

The pitching staff bulked up with 15-game winner Aaron Sele and veteran Kevin Appier which should improve the staff. Troy Percival is a solid closer who saved 39 games in 2001, but it won’t be enough.

As long as they stay healthy, the Angels won’t be too far back in last place.

– Jeremy Gustafson

A.L. East

1

Good luck finding New York’s weakness.

Roger Clemens won 20 games last year, Mike Mussina went 8-2 in his final 13 starts with a 1.67 earned-run average, Mariono Rivera saved a major league best 50 games and newly signed Steve Karsay’s 1.25 ERA was best among American League relievers last year.

Jason Giambi was a decent pick-up too.

His 47 doubles with Oakland in 2001 led the American League, as did his 129 walks, as did his .477 on-base percentage, as did his .660 slugging average.

He also hit 38 home runs and drove in 120 RBIs last season.

Derek Jeter covers more ground at shortstop than the tarp on a rainy day, though Bernie Williams in center is New York’s gold-glover.

Jeter still leads off. Williams still bats second.

And in case anyone doesn’t perform, George Steinbrenner can work a deal. The Yanks’ payroll last year was the top in baseball.

2

Pedro Martinez is pitching in Boston.

If his shoulder is healthy – and he says it is – paint the “K” on your chest before you head to the park. Bring many, many friends who do the same.

Pedro needs support and John Burkett’s 3.04 ERA last year with Atlanta looks admirable enough now.

Even if it isn’t, the Red Sox have four gold glovers in the field – the most recent of which is Johnny Damon in center.

He’ll lead off. In 1999 and 2000, Damon had a .380 on-base percentage. He’s fast too, which will help when he gets on base.

Nomar Garciaparra’s wrist is healed. In 2000, he hit .372.

If Nomar can’t bring Damon in, Manny Ramirez should. Last year he had125 RBIs.

New ownership in Beantown should also mean fewer in-house squabbles than last year allowed.

3

New general manager J.P. Riccardi comes from Oakland where, for the past few years, poorly-paid highly-skilled athletes have made the Yankees sweat in September.

And last year, in October.

Toronto won’t play then this year but that’s only because the Blue Jays are young.

Felipe Lopez starts at shortstop. He’s 21, fast, and can hit for power.

Third baseman Eric Hinske is 24 with a decent glove and decent bat. He hit 25 homers in Triple A last year.

Carlos Delgado will hit 40 home runs this year. He was one shy last year.

Raul Mondesi will bat third, one ahead of Delgado. Mondesi was the Blue Jays’ lone gold-glover last year. He has the speed and power to hit 30 home runs and steal 30 bases.

Last year, center fielder Jose Cruz Jr. did just that.

4

Pitching will be a problem in Baltimore.

Last year the team’s ERA was 4.67 – 22nd in the majors – and the Orioles only off-season pick-up was outfielder Marty Cordova from Cleveland.

Watch them though. With pitching this poor and defense this solid – four gold-glovers in the field – Baltimore will at least make it worth an upper deck seat.

Jeff Conine is playing his best baseball since 1997.

The 35-year-old hit .311 last year and drove in 97 men. Tony Batista’s 25 homers was best among Orioles last season and Marty Cordova was solid enough, hitting .301.

There’s no room to improve though. Baltimore’s payroll went from $83 million two years ago to $40 million this year.

Keep that in mind when Cal Ripken isn’t filling the seats in June.

5

Last year, Tampa Bay lost 100 games, tied with Pittsburgh for the most in baseball. Expect the same.

No one on their roster hit .300 last year. Greg Vaughn’s 25 homers was half his 1998 total.

But even if he knocked 40 over the wall this year, rumors say he’ll hit a lot of them for another team.

Last year, Tampa Bay’s payroll was 18th, but after Vaughn leaves, the Devil Rays must clear still more room, analysts say.

The relievers probably won’t save as many games this year as a salary cap would.

– Paul Kix