Snow absent from Iowa
December 12, 2001
After November’s record-breaking warm temperatures and an undetectable slip into December, Iowa is still barren of snow.
Although some are relieved to see the green ground, it leads others to point toward global warming. It also increases stress for owners of winter-oriented businesses.
November’s 47.9 degree average temperature was more than 10 degrees warmer than the normal 37.4 average, said Harry Hillaker, state climatologist for the Iowa Department of Agriculture. The previous record, set in 1999, was 44.3 degrees, he said.
Metinka Slater, meteorologist for WOI-TV, said the warmth is welcome.
“Everybody loves to hear the words `unseasonably warm weather,’ ” she said.
But good weather is not always good news, said Elwynn Taylor, professor of agronomy, who sees a connection between the mild November and December and global warming.
Taylor, who has studied yield trends in corn in the United States, said yields increased 3 percent between 1937 and 1972. Since the warming trend began in 1972, the fluctuations have resulted in a yield increase of less than 1 percent, he said.
“The difference is totally attributable to global warming,” he said.
Warming trends are normal, but Taylor said some of the continued record setting can be attributed to humans.
“The maximum of human effect on global warming in past centuries appears to be no more than 5 percent of the observable change,” he said. “Five percent is barely measurable, but much as interest on a loan can compound over time, so could global warming end up being significant.”
The Midwest is already paying the price, Taylor said.
“It costs us one-half billion bushels of grain per year,” he said. “At $2 per bushel, that means about a billion dollars per year lost to farmers of Iowa.”
Gene Takle, professor of geological and atmospheric sciences, said the warm weather cannot be attributed to global warming “because Iowa experienced unseasonably cold weather last winter.”
Taylor disagreed.
“Symptoms of global warming are not necessarily high temperatures, but extremes,” he said. “So even the very cold temperatures of 2000’s weather have to be considered consistent with a global warming trend.”
The past two years are classic examples of fluctuation, Slater said, the “winter that never ended” and the “winter that never got started – so far.”
And the lack of winter weather has been affecting area businesses.
Carr Hardware, 615 24th St., has a stack of unsold snow shovels waiting for snow to fall.
“Sales are definitely less than last year and are a little bit slower than usual,” said Lucas Smith, department manager at Carr. “We’re expecting it to pick up.”
Cross-country ski rentals at Skunk River Cycles, 308 Main St. are nonexistent, said salesclerk Jeff Halliburton.
“I think all the skiers want to ski – I know I’d like to,” he said. “Last year we had really good snow.”
Halliburton said he’s anticipating future snowfalls, “but chances are it won’t stay around, which makes it even worse because we can see it.”
But although the skis aren’t moving, the bikes are.
“We’ve been selling a lot of bicycles, which is kind of abnormal for this kind of year,” he said.
Snow machines are silent on the hills of Boone. Seven Oaks Recreation, which provides skiing, snowboarding and tubing, has been able to make snow only one day this season.
“Everything’s been really slow,” said Manager Joel Bryan, who has used the balmy days to check a few items off his improvements list.
Last year was a record-breaker, with snow on the ground for more than 100 days, he said. This year will be average, with between 70 and 80 snow days, he said.
“This time last year, we were already open two weeks,” Bryan said. But he’s optimistic. With the current weather forecasts, Bryan said he’s hoping to have the tubing park open Sunday and the skiing hills open by the 19th.
“We think that we will still see our projections,” Bryan said.