ISU meteorology students and faculty will have the opportunity to win $50,000 in a new meteorology contest.Contestants from around the country will compete for the grand prize in a long-range forecast contest sponsored by Aquila Energy, headquartered in Kansas City, Mo., and the American Meteorological Society.Jenny Bodem, senior in meteorology, and Jeremy Grams, junior in meteorology, are participating in the contest. Bill Gallus, assistant professor of geological and atmospheric sciences, will also participate.”The contest just started this year,” said Bodem, president of the ISU-AMS Club. “It’s a national competition, so we’ll be competing against anyone who does anything in meteorology and wants to enter.”The task of the participants will be to determine the number of heating degree days in 13 U.S. cities over six months, Bodem said.”Contestants will predict the sum of heating degree days for three-month periods. This month, contestants send us their prediction of heating degrees for February, March and April,” said Brad Hoggatt, senior meteorologist at Aquila Energy.A heating degree day is calculated by adding the daily high to the daily low and dividing by two to determine the temperature mean. If that mean is below 65 degrees, the mean is subtracted from 65 to determine the heating degree day, according to the City of Ames Web site.The participants send in their predictions as a probability distribution, which outlines the probability of the sum of heating degrees in a month will fall at a given level, Hoggatt said.”It’s tough to figure out what is going to happen over a three month period,” Grams said. “It’s a lot harder than predicting what will happen tomorrow.”Grams said he uses many methods for formulating his predictions.”I usually look at the Climate Prediction Center forecast,” he said. “There are different models you can look at, and you look at averages for past years.”To win the contest, a contestant must have the least amount of error over the 13 cities and six periods, Hoggatt said.”That’s 78 total forecasts, so it really has to depend on skill and not luck,” he said. “The most skillful participant will win the contest.”The skill of the winner must be greater than climatology, which is the normal number of heating degree days, Hoggatt said. According to the contest Web site, www.guaranteedweather.com, the winner must demonstrate “skill relative to the 15-year average and 20-year standard deviation.””You’re trying to beat climatology,” Bodem said. “If you beat climatology for six months, you could win.” Smaller-scale prizes are also available for those who do not earn the grand prize.”You can get a prize for doing well predicting with individual cities, such as a trip to that city or a cash prize,” Bodem said. Aquila’s Web page confirmed that outside sponsors are allowed to provide location-specific prizes if they desire.Aquila is interested in the contest because it is an energy company. “Our root business is energy, and high heating degree days mean a higher heat load,” Hoggatt said.The first round of the contest started in December and will last for six months. Aquila agreed to sponsor the contest for four years and will award as much as $400,000 in prizes, according to the company Web site.