Deflation may threaten United State’s economy
September 21, 1998
There may be a new threat to the strong United States economy — deflation.
Deflation, the opposite of inflation, could be returning after a six-decade absence, according to an article by the Associated Press.
“A better term for [deflation] would be appreciation or strengthening of the U.S. dollar,” said Bob Jolly, Iowa State professor of economics. “What that means is that foreigners have to spend more money to buy goods coming from the United States. In turn, foreign goods cost less because we can get more for our money and our currency is very strong.”
Usually deflation means there will be a depression or recession. But with the unemployment rate currently at 4.7 percent, a 24-year low, and consumer confidence at a 28-year high, economic problems do not look to be looming on the horizon for the U.S. economy. According to an essay by University of Georgia Professor George Selgin, deflation does not necessarily mean economic troubles in the future for the United States.
“The deflation of the early 1930s was a genuine disaster, involving massive declines in production and employment,” he said in his essay titled “The Price is Right.”
“But what made that deflation so painful, besides its severity,” he said, “was its underlying cause: a collapse of the money supply, which in turn led to a collapse in consumer spending.”
Many in the financial community are saying this is the effect of economic problems in other parts of the world.
“It is easier to explain why other currencies are losing value than to explain why the dollar is gaining value,” Jolly said. “People don’t want to hold assets in foreign corporations because of the decreasing in value of other currencies. They are buying dollars instead, thus increasing the value of the dollar.
“I’m sure that this is going to persist as long as countries in the Pacific Rim, Russia and Brazil are having major economic problems,” Jolly said. “Right now there is a lot of faith in the dollar.”
Many people believe deflation will cause a decrease in wages and earnings, but this is not true, according to Selgin.
After hitting a post World War II high of 13 percent in 1979, the inflation rate this year is running at a 32-year low of around 2 percent, according to an AP article. “We have an economy that is growing strongly. The greater risk has been a pick up in inflation,” Janet Yellen, chairwoman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers said in the article.
“Deflation could harm debtors because they would pay back loans with money that is more valuable than the currency they borrowed. But that seems unlikely to Selgin.
With the baby-boomer generation saving for retirement, “we’re moving from a shop-’til-you-drop [culture] to a save-for-retirement culture,” said Jim Paulsen, chief investment manager of Norwest Investment Management Inc. out of Minneapolis. “It’s really caused demand to grow much more slowly.”