Economists say Russia financial crisis was expected
September 9, 1998
Concerns are growing around the world about the economic situation in Russia.
“Basically, the situation with the monetary funds is the problem,” said George Ushakov, senior in computer science from Russia. “[Russia] borrowed from the International Monetary funds, and the deadline for the payback is coming up for the government. Because of this, all of the foreign investors are pulling out.”
The economic problems facing the country have been building for some time, said economics professor Harvey Lapan.
“This has been happening since the collapse of the former Soviet Union,” Lapan said. “The goal of the West and the Soviet leaders was to convert the country to a market economy.”
With Russia’s conversion to a democratic state, people are not accustomed to the free market system, he said.
“They had no experience with a free-based economy,” Lapan said. “People were used to everything being produced and supplied by the state. The people could not get anything else, so the products tended to be shoddy.
“So when they went to the free market, they could not compete with the products they produced because of their quality,” he said.
Planning by Russian officials with little experience with the free market did not accomplish what it needed to.
“The reforms were not carried out fully. Ideally, privatization would let companies compete with each other as they do in the West,” Lamer said. “But the products could not compete with the imports. Russians citizens had to buy Russian coats; now that they have imports they have choices.”
Most people in Russia want the new economy to succeed, Ushakov said.
“There are a lot of people that are in favor of the government,” Ushakov said. “There are many ‘new Russians’ who are advantageous to keep the free market system.
“The people are driven to an open market; they want to use personal skills and get ahead for themselves,” he said.
The ruble has dropped more than 63 percent since Aug. 17, and many state employees have not been paid for months, according to a CNN-FN Web site.
“I was there this summer,” said Robert Lamer, junior in economics. “We attended a protest at one of the universities. The professors there have not gotten paid for over two months.”
According to CNN-FN, Viktor Chernomyrdin, the acting prime minister, supports a plan to print more money in a controlled format to pay back 20 million rubles, or $1.2 billion in U.S. dollars, in unpaid pensions, and 7.5 billion rubles in wages.
In an address to parliament, Chernomyrdin called for an “economic dictatorship” starting in January, and “controlled” monetary emission before then.
Lapan said another problem for the government is the ability to collect revenue.
“In the Soviet system, they could control prices,” he said. “They didn’t have to tax because they could just take the profits from the corporations. But now they have not been enforcing their tax code and the rich don’t want to pay taxes, thus they don’t have any funds to run the government.”
With pressure to relieve the reeling economy, the communist-dominated parliament has repeatedly rejected Boris Yeltsin’s pick for prime minister in a political stand-off. Some are questioning Yeltsin’s motive for insisting on Viktor Chernomyrdin.
“Yeltsin tries to hire old friends when he is in trouble,” Ushakov said. “Chernomyrdin is one of his best friends who used to control one of the major gas companies.”
Lamer said many Russians do not approve of Yeltsin’s handling of the economic situation but remain hopeful.
“I am opposed to Boris Yeltsin, but I am in favor of the democratic reforms,” he said. “People over there do believe in the free-market system.
“It looks pretty bad, and it is very uncertain,” he said. “But there is a stereotype about the Russian crisis. People just want a lawful and democratic country.”
Ever since the 1991 coup attempt, the country has been changing drastically.
“Russia is completely different from what it was as the biggest state in the U.S.S.R.,” Ushakov said. “The attitude of most of the people has changed. It is now about the individual, not the state.”
With a turbulent future ahead of them, many Russians remain hopeful about the future.
“The future of the country is kind of hard to predict because of my personal attitude, but hopefully we will make it through it,” Ushakov said. “We have been through this before back in 1991; we can do it again.”