Tuesday, a rocket-propelled grenade slammed into the U.S. Embassy in Moscow. The motive for the attack is unknown at this time, but it’s a safe bet that it had to do with the NATO air strikes in Bosnia; protests against the raids have been staged in Moscow since they began.

While the attack caused only superficial damage to the embassy itself, it is a clear sign that relations between the West and Russia are not entirely friendly. The repeated comments from Moscow regarding the “genocide” being committed by NATO against Russia’s Serb “brothers” indicate just how tenuous the relationship is. The warm relations with Russia following the end of the Cold War and the breakup of the Soviet Union have cooled significantly, and while a return to the old Cold War standoff is unlikely, relations with Russia will probably be difficult at best for a number of reasons.

Today, Russia is a mess, with an economy in disastrous condition. It is generally unable to compete in the international marketplace due to the low quality of its manufactured goods and unable to export its significant wealth of natural resources. There is little local money available for investment, and mistrust of the West has made investment by foreign firms a tough proposition.

But the major factor in keeping foreign investors out is organized crime. The Russian government’s law enforcement capability is weak, and has been so since the U.S.S.R. fell apart. The Russian mob moved in in a big way with almost nothing to stop it but an underpaid and unmotivated police force.

Compounding the problem is an equally ineffective customs system; commerce is dictated by the mob as well. Business leaders are under constant threat unless they cooperate with criminals. Those who do not face stiff reprisals; several Russian businessmen have been assassinated for standing up to the mob, and armored Mercedes have become all the rage in the Russian business community.

The one area where Russia has robust exports is the weapons trade. Russian weapons systems have a reputation for being reliable and simple to operate. They are also much less expensive than Western weapons, allowing smaller nations to equip their militaries with first-class systems.

The willingness of the Russians to sell these weapons at fire-sale prices and to almost anyone is an indication of just how desperate they are for foreign money. Russia has been selling advanced equipment to some dangerous customers, including Iran. The Iranians have bought submarines for patrolling the vital Straits of Hormuz, and they have been negotiating to buy the very powerful Backfire bomber, an ideal choice with which to disrupt shipping in the Persian Gulf. And the Russians are not stopping with their current weapons; new aircraft, tanks and missiles are being developed and are up for sale.

An even more critical area is nuclear proliferation. Russian weapons scientists, out of work and with thorough knowledge of the technology, could be lured to work for a country seeking to develop nuclear weapons.

Equally disturbing have been the repeated attempts to smuggle nuclear materials, including plutonium, out of Russia and the other former Soviet republics. German and Polish authorities have intercepted an alarming number of small shipments of various nuclear materials, which were intended as samples for potential buyers. Even a small amount of plutonium could cause major havoc in the hands of a terrorist group; not as the fuel for an atomic bomb, but as a toxin introduced into a major city’s water supply.

The attack on the U.S. Embassy is indicative of the strong anti-West and nationalistic feelings which run through the Russian culture.

These attitudes will always make relations with the West difficult no matter how good the Russian economy may be in the future, and with the floundering economy that exists today they can be downright dangerous. Economic desperation combined with such sentiments could serve to propel an ultra-nationalist such as Vladimir Zhirinovsky to power. Such an outcome could result in an attempted restoration of the old Soviet empire, and in even more dangerous military adventures in Eastern Europe.

Regarding Russia as a threat or a friend is a tough choice. Hopes that a true democracy would form are quickly fading, and looking at the history of Russia indicates that one will not form. Russia has always been dominated by a series of strongmen, even during the “democratic” days of communist rule. Nations in desperate straits tend to look for strong leaders to set things right, and Russia is certainly in such a situation today.

The West lost its opportunity to create a better Russia in the wake of the Cold War. There were calls for a neo-Marshall Plan in 1991 to save Russia and the former Soviet Union from economic chaos, but they were not acted upon.

The one factor that would have stabilized the region, foreign economic investment, wasn’t brought into force. The West is now paying the price with an unstable and unpredictable former superpower, one which could cause major problems in the future.

Kevin Kirby is a senior in journalism mass communication from Louisville, Ky. He has a B.A. in political science. from the University of Wyoming.