The West is in a dither over just what the People’s Republic of China’s intentions are in world affairs and how relations with the Chinese should be conducted.

Should we trade with the world’s most populous nation and ignore their atrocious human rights record, or should we play hardball with them and refuse to trade until they lose their totalitarian bent?

Relations are frosty now and will probably get frostier in years to come. The Clinton administration is following its usual human-rights-first course in its foreign policy, if what we have now is a foreign policy. While this is certainly admirable on an ethical and humanitarian level, it is only going to make the Chinese government more difficult to deal with. That could lead to a sort of “cold peace” between the West and China – not necessarily a repeat of the Cold War, but a similar standoff between major powers.

The Chinese regime does not appreciate being told how to conduct its domestic business. It is absolutely committed to running its internal affairs in the manner it sees fit. It has repeatedly informed the world of that, stating that no nation should tell another how to run its own business, thank you very much and goodbye. Pressure from the outside to behave in a more democratic fashion only causes the Chinese government to react by being even more aloof and distant.

This is a very dangerous course for the West to set. China has to be considered a regional superpower, and they see the U.S. as wanting to be the only superpower on the planet and attempting to block China’s rise to power.

China is clearly attempting to become the prime power in the Western Pacific, and in particular the South China Sea. China especially wants the Spratly Islands, which are located in the straits between China and the Philippines.

The islands are important for two reasons. First, they straddle the major shipping lanes in the Western Pacific. Control of the islands would allow China to disrupt or restrict shipping in the area in the event of a crisis, putting China in a position similar to that of Iran in relation to the Straits of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf. Second, the Spratlys may have a significant amount of oil under them, and demand for that commodity is not going to disappear anytime soon.

In February, it was discovered that China had built what appeared to be a barracks on Mischief Reef, which is near the Spratlys. Could a military adventure on the islands be far off? It is doubtful that these structures are to be used only for training, or for some offshore R&R for their marines.

China is also continuing its intimidation of Taiwan. A series of military maneuvers and ballistic missile tests were conducted near the northern shore of Taiwan, a clear example of sabre-rattling by the Chinese. The two Chinas have improved relations in recent years, with Taiwan assisting mainland China in economic affairs and each allowing people to move between the two states.

However, China does not want to allow Taiwan to continue to exist as a de facto independent entity forever. The Communists never actually recognized Taiwan as an independent state, and modern China certainly wants the modern technology and industrial capacity which Taiwan now possesses.

China is rapidly modernizing its armed forces, which are still crudely equipped by Western standards. The “Popular War” doctrine of massive numbers of troops overwhelming was trashed following the Gulf War, when China’s leaders watched the technologically superior coalition forces roll over Iraq. They have purchased a variety of high-tech systems from the cash-strapped Russians, including modern fighter jets and submarines. Development work is continuing on nuclear attack subs and ballistic-missile subs as well; vehicles which are perfect for use as offensive weapons.

China has also made overtures about buying the uncompleted Russian aircraft carrier Varyag ; that ship would give the Chinese the ultimate vessel for power projection in the Pacific.

So what can we do? China appears to be on an expansionist course no matter what the rest of the world thinks of it. Pressure from the outside to change their foreign or domestic policies will only cause them to be even more resolute in their actions, but appeasement of the regime is definitely not acceptable.

We are just going to have to wait until China moves toward a more democratic government, and help move it toward that end with some quiet diplomacy. Public posturing and criticism will do no good, a lesson the Clinton administration and its successors had better learn soon.

China’s growing middle class will not put up with a repressive regime forever. As the population becomes wealthier and better educated, they will demand more and more freedoms, and the government will either adapt or crumble.

The old dynasties were said to have a “mandate from heaven” to rule, and they would lose that mandate should they rule badly. But until the Chinese people themselves change their homeland, there is little the West can do but be vigilant and patient.

Kevin S. Kirby is a senior in journalism mass communication from Louisville, Ky. He has a B.A. in political science from the University of Wyoming.