Neither party has secured a majority in US House, Senate

The U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., the seat of the U.S. Congress.

Michael Craighton
November 4, 2020

Editor’s Note: This story will be updated with new information and analysis as results become available.

Nov. 6, 9:05 p.m.

The U.S. Senate race in Georgia between Democrat Jon Ossoff and Republican David Perdue will advance to a Jan. 5 runoff, according to The Associated Press.

With greater than 98 percent of votes counted, neither candidate has received the 50 percent required to be declared the winner. Under Georgia election law, if no candidate receives 50 percent of the total votes, the top two candidates advance to a runoff.

This runoff election, in which the Georgia special Senate election between Democrat Raphael Warnock and Republican Kelly Loeffler will also be decided, will determine which party has a majority in the Senate. Should former Vice President Joe Biden win the presidency, a victory for Democrats in both Georgia races would allow Vice President Kamala Harris to cast tie-breaking votes.

The parties currently stand with 48 seats each, with Alaska and North Carolina still outstanding. Races in both of those states favor Republicans, which would result in 48 seats for Democrats and 50 seats for Republicans, with the two Georgia seats outstanding.

The U.S. House race for Nevada’s 4th Congressional District was called in favor of Democrat Steven Horsford on Friday afternoon, bringing the current balance of seats in the House closer to a Democratic majority. Democrats have won 212 seats while Republicans have won 194. There are 218 seats needed for a majority, 29 races remain uncalled.

Nov. 6, 1:30 p.m.

Control of the House and Senate remains in the balance. With recent calls by The Associated Press in Pennsylvania, Georgia and elsewhere, Democrats lead in the House with 211 seats to Republicans’ 194, to hold a majority either party must reach 218.

The winner of Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District remains unclear. Iowa Secretary of State Paul Pate announced in a press conference Friday morning that human error in a single precinct in Jasper County has caused a misreporting of the vote tally. When corrected, the race shifted from a margin of 282 votes in favor of Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks to 162 votes in favor of Democrat Rita Hart.

Pate said a hand recount of the entire county would begin at 10 a.m. Saturday. While Pate does not expect the vote totals to change considerably, yet uncounted absentee ballots can arrive as late as Nov. 9.

The U.S. Senate continues to hang in the balance, with Democrats and Republicans each holding 48 seats. Fifty-one seats are required for the majority, although if a party wins the presidency, a majority can be achieved with 50 seats due to the vice president’s ability to cast a tie-breaking vote.

Outstanding Senate races include North Carolina, Alaska and two races in Georgia.

While many expect Alaska and North Carolina to be won by Republicans, North Carolina officials have said the state will not continue to count votes until the deadline for receiving absentee ballots has passed on Nov. 12.

Georgia’s special election has already been sent to a runoff election on Jan. 5, and with neither candidate in the other race having received greater than 50 percent of the vote, it appears poised to head to the runoff election as well.

8:12 p.m.

Michigan Democratic Sen. Gary Peters wins his reelection, securing another seat in the Senate for the Democrats, according to AP. Peters won with 50 percent of votes cast.

3:19 p.m.

Mack Shelley, chairman of the political science department at Iowa State University, said that while Democrats are on track to retain control of the U.S. House, their majority will likely be much smaller.

“This is not what polls led people to believe,” Shelley said. “Media interpretation of the polling suggested a gain of five to 10 seats, but we’re seeing that Democrats are actually losing seats.”

With several seats still outstanding in the Senate, Shelley said it does not look favorable for Democrats.

“Mitch McConnell is likely to be in charge of a slightly smaller majority,” Shelley said. “If Biden were to win, and the Senate ends up in a 50/50 split, Kamala Harris would have to be in the Senate all the time to break a tie…But right now even a 50/50 tie seems like a stretch.”

Prior to the election, hopes were high among national Democrats that the party would be able to win the presidency, keep the majority in the House and take control of the Senate. Shelley said that trifecta outcome now seems less likely.

“This has to be very disappointing for Democrats nationally,” Shelley said.

With Democrats likely to retain control of the House, there are very few paths that would avoid at least another two years gridlock in Washington. Unless Democrats win both the presidency and the Senate, the government will remain divided.

“A [Biden presidency/Republican Senate] split government is basically an inversion of the current stasis, which is an inability to get much movement through the government,” Shelley said. “Mitch McConnell has said that he’s the grim reaper there to say no to any Democratic initiative.”

Shelley also pointed to the special Senate election in Georgia as a race to watch.

“Given the political complexion, it seems like toss-up territory,” Shelley said. “It’s not likely to flip the Senate, but it could.”

1:30 p.m.

The Associated Press (AP) has confirmed the reelection of incumbent Democrat Cindy Axne of District 3 in Iowa. This announcement comes following the concession of Republican David Young.

12:52 p.m.

Republican Sen. Susan Collins wins her reelection, securing another seat in the Senate for the Republicans, according to AP. Collins won with 50.3 percent of votes cast.

12:39 p.m.

Delayed results in a number of key races across the country have left the ideological balance of the U.S. House and Senate in limbo.

Based on races called by The Associated Press as of 12:00 p.m., Democrats and Republicans each control 47 seats in the Senate, with 6 seats still undecided. Democrats’ margins include 45 seats held by Democrats and two independents who caucus with the Democratic Party. The House stands with Democrats, having won 204 seats and Republicans having won 188, with 55 races remaining uncalled.

In Iowa, Republican Joni Ernst was reelected to the U.S. Senate in a race Democrats had hoped to flip. Two of Iowa’s U.S. House races have also been called, with Republican Randy Feenstra winning the 4th District and Republican Ashley Hinson being declared the winner in the 1st District. The 2nd and 3rd Districts remain too close for AP to call, although Republican David Young has conceded the 3rd District race to incumbent Democrat Cindy Axne.

Both parties targeted seats they hoped to flip in order to gain control of the Senate. Democrats have flipped Senate seats in Arizona and Colorado, with former astronaut Mark Kelly winning in Arizona and former Gov. John Hickenlooper winning in Colorado. Republican Tommy Tuberville defeated incumbent Doug Jones in Alabama.

In the House, Republicans have flipped seats in South Carolina, south Florida, Minnesota, Oklahoma and New Mexico, as well as Iowa’s 1st District. Democrats have gained seats only in two districts in North Carolina.

Other notable results include the reelection of Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, South Carolina Republican Lindsey Graham in the Senate, as well as all four members of the so-called “squad” in the House, comprised of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, Rashida Tlaib of Michigan, Ayanna Pressley of Massachusetts and Ilhan Omar of Minnesota, all incumbent Democratic representatives.

One unusual race this election is Georgia’s special election. The seat was filled by appointment in January following Johnny Isakson’s resignation. Georgia law requires a seat filled by appointment to be on the ballot in the following general election. A unique factor of this special election is that no winner will be declared without a majority of votes. Instead, the two candidates receiving the most votes will proceed to a runoff election to be held Jan. 5.

Below are the results for Iowa’s U.S. Senate and House elections as they stand now, as well as the remaining races that have been called nationally.

Iowa