Teams to watch
No. 1 UConn:
After a week of upsets in the conference tournaments, UConn was one top dog that came out unscathed. Not only that, the Huskies rolled through Marquette, who is a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
The reigning national champs are looking for a repeat, and there does not seem to be any team that can stop them. Along with being the top team in the nation, the Huskies also have a cakewalk to the Elite Eight. Auburn is one of the only teams that can give UConn problems.
The biggest thing that makes the Huskies so scary is how they rank outright first in most rankings and metrics. According to KenPom, UConn has the No. 1 adjusted offense and nearly a top-10 adjusted defense. Those two factors combined give UConn the best chance to win it all again. Good luck, everyone else in the East.
No. 3 Illinois:
The Big Ten champs have a chance to cause waves in the NCAA Tournament. Illinois has one of the highest-scoring offenses in the nation and puts opponents to the test every game.
The Fighting Illini rolled through the Big Ten Tournament, taking down teams like Nebraska and Wisconsin, two teams that could also do damage in the tournament.
The only issue I see with Illinois is its defense. Although Illinois is top five in offense, it is barely in the top 100 in defense. Any team that goes up against Illinois better be prepared for the shootout, and Illinois always puts up a fight.
No. 4 Auburn:
Auburn is an interesting team to place because of its potential. On one hand, Auburn has manipulated the rankings a lot. The Tigers rolled through two very good teams in South Carolina and Florida to win the SEC Tournament. Along with that, Auburn also has a net ranking of No. 4 in KenPom due to its No. 10 adjusted offense and No. 4 adjusted defense.
On the other hand, Auburn has seven losses, which is why it earned the No. 4 seed. Although some of those losses were to good teams, some were headscratchers. The inconsistency throughout the season makes Auburn a wildcard.
If the Tigers play to their best, they can beat any team in the nation. They could be out earlier than expected if they do not show up.
No. 8 FAU:
Florida Atlantic (FAU) is a team to watch for an interesting reason. Many expected the Owls to drop out of the tournament due to its strength of schedule and failure to win the American Athletic Tournament, as they lost to Temple.
Getting the No. 8 seed seemed like a massive stretch for FAU, as it came in outside the top 40 in net ranking. The Owls are pretty much a worse version of Illinois, as they are outside the top 100 in adjusted defense and not even in the top 15 in adjusted offense.
FAU could be an early-round exit, especially because they would run into UConn.
No. 10 Drake:
Drake is possibly the scariest No. 10 or lower seed in the entire tournament. The Bulldogs have “Cinderella story” written all over them.
Not only will Drake play in Omaha, Nebraska, in the first two rounds, which is a stone’s throw from Des Moines, Iowa, where Drake resides. Along with that, the Bulldogs could match up with No. 2 Iowa State in the second round, which has upset written all over it.
Drake has a balanced team that can go on spurts, especially from deep which bodes well for taking down top teams. If someone cannot stop Tucker DeVries, he could do some damage in the NCAA Tournament, so watch out for Drake.
Matchups to watch
No. 2 Iowa State vs. No. 15 South Dakota State:
This will be one of the upset matchups to watch, especially because I am still wary of whether Iowa State can live up to the high seed it was given.
Coaches playing against their old teams tend to give bad juju, as was seen by Iowa State women’s unexpected first-round exit against Bill Fennelly’s old team in Toledo. With Iowa State head coach T.J. Otzelberger coaching at South Dakota State for three years, the storyline is that much deeper.
Although I do not see South Dakota State succeeding against Iowa State’s defense, the Jackrabbits defense is nothing to scoff at. If the Cyclones come out cold, like they did a year ago, they could be packing much sooner than expected.
No. 4 Auburn vs. No. 13 Yale:
This will be a game to watch just because Auburn is on fraud watch. Yes, Auburn ranks among the top of the nation in every category and is one of the most balanced teams in the nation.
However, Yale is a randomly hot team and could make magic happen. It is March, and Yale is coming off a massive clutch win over Brown in the Ivy League Tournament.
On paper, Auburn wins this 99 out of 100 times, but it’s called March Madness for a reason. Anything can happen.
No. 5 San Diego State vs. No. 12 UAB:
This will be the most fun match to watch for one reason: luck.
I know San Diego State should win this game, especially because the Aztecs were the national championship runner-ups a year ago and are very good on paper. San Diego State is nearly in the top 20 and has one of the best defenses in the nation.
The issue is that UAB is No. 11 in luck rating. San Diego State is barely in the top 300. March Madness is all about luck.
We have seen No. 16 seeds beat No. 1 seeds and No. 15 seeds make deep runs in recent years. So if UAB on a good day gets San Diego State on a bad day, we could see a big upset early on.
No. 6 BYU vs. No. 11 Duquesne:
This is an interesting matchup because of how dangerous BYU can be. There is an off chance that Duquesne can pull out the upset, but BYU is a team that should not be taken lightly.
The Cougars have pulled out a few big upsets, which bodes well if they run into Illinois or Iowa State. BYU has the capability to keep up with Illinois in a shootout and has been Iowa State’s Achilles heel throughout the season.
It comes down to if Aly Khalifa is back to 100%. If BYU’s big man is ready to go, opposing teams will have to be on watch for great ball movement and dangers from beyond the arc. If he is not up to full speed, BYU could have issues getting things moving and Duquesne could pull out the upset.
