Good Cop

Jack Shover

After capturing its first win of the season, Iowa State will jump to 2-2 after a win against Texas Christian University this Saturday.

You can call last years upset of a Kenny Hill-lead TCU in Ames a fluke, but this year, TCU is lead by sophomore Shawn Robinson at quarterback.

Robinson has been terrible for the Horn Frogs. The last two games against Ohio State and Texas saw Robinson throw two touchdowns to four interceptions.

It would be different if Robinson was being pressured into bad throws, but against Texas and Ohio State, Robinson would have a clean pocket and still made poor decisions which resulted in passes right into the hands of a defender underneath.

Robinson does throw for a lot of yards, but those mistakes end up torpedoing TCU on the scoreboard.

It seems that seeing those defenders underneath is Robinson’s biggest weakness and one Iowa State can exploit by using rangy defenders like linebacker Marcel Spears.

Because of Robinson’s interception deficiency, TCU relies on their ground game and have been averaging 204.5 rushing yards a game and 5.4 yards a carry.

With that being said, Iowa State has a strong defense against the run only allowing teams to average 3.5 yards per carry.

If Iowa State is able to hold TCU’s running backs in the early downs, that could put more pressure on Robinson to produce and lead to more bad decisions on his part.

On offense, Iowa State’s run game will most likely falter again as TCU is holding opponents to less than four yards a carry and Iowa State is averaging 2.7, but the Iowa State passing attack has remained a threat.

Zeb Noland will be starting his third game of the season, and I’d expect an even better rapport with his receivers than he did against Akron and Oklahoma. With that familiarity, Noland will be able to pick apart the TCU defense with the help of Hakeem Butler and company and lead Iowa State to a close upset.

Prediction: Iowa State 24, TCU 17

Bad Cop

Spencer Suckow

Last year, Iowa State pulled off one of the biggest wins in program history when the No. 25 Cyclones defeated then-undefeated No. 4 TCU at Jack Trice Stadium.

Unlike last year, though, Iowa State won’t have Kenny Hill to bail them out.

Last year’s starting QB for the Horned Frogs committed three terrible turnovers (two in the redzone) to give Iowa State a chance to steal a victory from a TCU team that was clearly more talented. Make no mistake, the Cyclones’ defense played well, but there was no reason for that TCU should’ve lost that game.

The Horned Frogs outrushed the Cyclones 172-53 last year. Had it not been for those turnovers, TCU likely would’ve won by at least a touchdown. Some of that may have had to do with the cold weather, but with the game being in Fort Worth this year, Iowa State won’t get any luxuries this time around.

TCU also brings back its leading rusher from last year’s game in Darius Anderson, who carried the ball 12 times for 95 yards. Also returning is KaVontae Turpin, who scored TCU’s only touchdown that game and is one of the most explosive players in the Big 12.

Also going against the Cyclones is the fact that the team this year isn’t nearly as hot going into the TCU game as they were last year. Whereas the Cyclones entered last year’s contest on a three-game winning streak (averaging 38 points per game in those wins), the 2018 Cyclones are 1-2 and haven’t scored over 27 points yet this season.

That’ll be a problem going up against what is, consistently, the Big 12’s best defense on the road. Couple this with TCU’s explosive playmakers on offense and special teams, and it’s hard to envision the Cyclones pulling off the upset this time around.

Yes, TCU only scored 16 against Texas last week, but before that game the Horned Frogs were averaging nearly 42 points per game. And for as fun as it is to make jokes about Texas being “back,” the Longhorns are usually a stout defensive team with plenty of talent.

Look for TCU to rebound in this game and for Iowa State to fall to 1-3 on the season.

Prediction: TCU 27, Iowa State 14