AMES – Iowa State and Clemson are both in a position to sneak into the College Football Playoff. Both teams have played seven games and both are now ranked No. 11 in the latest edition of the AP Top 25.
But that begs the question: Who is better? Iowa State or Clemson?
The easy answer is the Cyclones, simply because they are 7-0 and the Tigers are 6-1. However, I’m not naive enough to think the record is all that matters. A lot goes into what makes a team good.
Clemson’s lone loss was to then-No. 1 Georgia 34-3 in week one of the season. The Tigers have improved since then, having scored over 28 points in all six games since then.
Granted, Georgia is the only ranked team Clemson has faced thus far and the only team with a winning record, so it should come as no surprise that the Tigers are on a roll.
Iowa State has faced one ranked team in then-No. 21 Iowa and squeaked out a 20-19 win. The Hawkeyes have since been unranked, so currently, the Cyclones have not faced a ranked opponent as of the week 10 AP Top 25.
In every game, Iowa State has scored 20 or more points, and the defense has looked better than Clemson’s.
The average score of a Cyclone game this season is 32-14 in favor of Iowa State when rounded to the nearest whole number. As for Clemson, the Tigers win on average 42-23.
When it’s looked at that way, the average score using the average scores if the two played would basically be even. Clemson has a better offense and Iowa State has a better defense, so the other side of the ball would be the difference in this hypothetical.
The Football Power Index (FPI) is a useful tool when comparing the strength of schedules, wins and losses among teams. Currently, Clemson clocks in at 13th and Iowa State sits 19th.
Looking at the rest of the schedule, things ramp up for each team. All five of Clemson’s final opponents have a winning record, except for The Citadel, but that should be a win anyway.
The Tigers’ toughest opponent is undefeated No. 18 Pittsburgh in what could be a game that decides who makes the ACC Championship.
The Cyclones have what I would call an odd schedule. I figured Kansas and Utah would be better than they are, and I thought Texas Tech and Cincinnati would be a bit further down in the Big 12 standings.
Kansas is the only team below .500 the Cyclones have left, and Utah is 4-4 right now, but I wouldn’t be shocked if the Utes drop another game before Iowa State rolls into town.
Kansas State is the only constant and the only currently ranked team on Iowa State’s schedule. The Wildcats are always a threat and this game could decide who plays in the Big 12 Championship.
Both of these teams control their own destiny, have faced a similar crowd in terms of opponents and have a similar lineup to finish the year.
The biggest difference between the Tigers and the Cyclones, to me, is simply the conferences they play in. The Big 12 feels more wide open, whereas the ACC seems to be top-heavy and a mess in the middle.
When it all balances out, Iowa State and Clemson will have played nearly identical schedules in terms of the quality of opponents.
Looking at the players, Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik has been better statistically than Iowa State’s Rocco Becht. Klubnik has over 100 more passing yards and a higher completion percentage than Becht.
The touchdown to interception ratio is big, too. Klubnik has 20 touchdowns to just three interceptions. Becht has 11 touchdown passes to five interceptions.
When rushing and receiving, the two teams have completely opposite rooms. Iowa State has three running backs between 300 and 400 yards, while Clemson has one north of 600 yards but no others over 300.
Among pass catchers, there are seven Tigers with at least 10 catches and 100 yards. The Cyclones have three players with 10 or more catches for 100 yards.
Defense is fairly even, too. Iowa State has more passes defended and sacks, while Clemson has forced more turnovers and has made more tackles.
No matter what way the Cyclones and the Tigers are compared, everything looks just about as even as can be, aside from the one-loss Clemson has.
If you want a team that’s resilient and can make adjustments, Iowa State is that team. If you want one that can create a lead and pull away, that’s Clemson.
Now, is there a clear-cut better team? Hard to say. I’ll leave that up to discussion.
I will say that I wouldn’t be against these two facing off in the College Football Playoff later this season.
