You may have seen an article about a student-made election model and prediction in the Daily a couple of weeks ago: this model was created by us, the students in POL S 4600, in an attempt to predict who will win the U.S. presidential election Tuesday. 

We have released an updated prediction based on election developments over the past couple of weeks. 

In the first election prediction, we predicted that former President Donald Trump would win a narrow contest, winning 272 electoral votes as opposed to Vice President Kamala Harris’ 266 electoral votes.

However, since the initial prediction was released, we have changed our stances and now predict that Harris will win. We predict that former President Donald Trump will recieve 256 votes and Vice President Kamala Harris will win with 282 votes.

We predict that out of the seven battleground states, Harris will win four: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada and North Carolina. This leaves Trump winning Wisconsin, Arizona and Georgia. 

The methodology for the second prediction is the same as the first prediction. We used historical results, current state-by-state polling data, down ballot races, state referendums and current events, including the closing arguments from both candidates, to select a winner for each state.

Readers might be especially interested as to why Harris is now predicted to win North Carolina. We cite the following reasons for the switch:

The recent scandal involving North Carolina gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson, coupled with a strong Democratic ground game, and an increase in statewide Latino voters, led students to predict that Harris will win North Carolina, a crucial swing state last won for the Democrats by Barack Obama in 2008.

Should Harris win North Carolina, she would become only the second Democratic presidential candidate to win North Carolina in more than 40 years.

This was the final prediction to be released before the election Tuesday.