Good Cop: Noah Lablanc
Iowa State comes into this week’s game against Cincinnati off of two straight losses to Texas Tech and Kansas. While the 23-22 loss to Texas Tech felt like a close game, last week’s 45-36 loss to Kansas didn’t. The Cyclones trailed for nearly the entire game and were beaten thoroughly in rushing yards, turnovers, third-down efficiency and possession time.
It was certainly an ugly game, but Iowa State football still has a path to 10 wins, a conference championship bid and potentially the playoffs. That path runs first through Cincinnati on Saturday night, and I am here to tell everyone that it is not time to smash the panic button yet.
The Cincinnati Bearcats are 5-4 overall, and 3-3 in conference play. They’re coming off a 31-24 loss to a West Virginia team that the Cyclones dispatched earlier this season.
The Bearcats are led by sophomore quarterback Brendan Sorsby, who has thrown for 2,387 yards on the season and has the third-best quarterback rating in the Big 12 this season (147.8).
The Cincinnati passing game will face off against a Cyclone defense that has largely been a no-fly zone this season. Iowa State has only allowed 163.1 passing yards per game this season and has only allowed 10 total passing touchdowns, both of which are the best in the Big 12.
The Cyclones should be able to effectively shut down the Bearcats’ air attack, which leaves them with a rushing game which is middle of the road in the Big 12.
On the defensive side, Cincinnati is ranked 12th in the Big 12 in terms of yards allowed, giving up an average of 386.1 yards per game. They will likely be exploitable for an Iowa State offense that has been strong this year.
The passing game for the Cyclones has been especially strong, even in last week’s loss to Kansas. In that contest, redshirt sophomore quarterback Rocco Becht threw for 383 yards and three touchdowns. Becht will likely continue to be the centerpiece of the offense this week, relying heavily on receivers Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins, who have both had great seasons up to this point.
However, there is no getting around it. The Cyclone run defense has been abysmal these past few weeks. The team has been crippled by injuries in the linebacker and defensive line rooms.
Cincinnati does not have an extremely strong run game, but it will certainly be a focal point for the Cyclones this week. This game is set to be a shootout, but I have Iowa State coming out on top of a high-scoring affair in Jack Trice Stadium on Saturday night.
Score Prediction: Iowa State 38, Cincinnati 35
Bad Cop: Nick Mensen
Since its second bye week, Iowa State has fallen victim to a two-game losing streak to teams that it was favored to beat by 13.5 and 2.5 points. Now, the Cyclones look to end this skid against a 5-4 Cincinnati team, who is also on a two-game losing streak.
Iowa State is currently in a four-way tie for third place in the Big 12 with Arizona State, Kansas State and West Virginia, who the Cyclones beat earlier in the season. Iowa State, while having lost the last two, hasn’t lost a night game since last year’s senior night vs former Big 12 member Texas. Saturday’s game will be another night game for the Cyclones, their fifth of the season.
Cincinnati comes in with losses against Pittsburgh, Texas Tech, Colorado and West Virginia. Three of these losses came by one possession.
Cincinnati does have a balanced offensive attack, as running back Corey Kiner comes in with 148 carries and 783 yards, averaging 5.3 yards per carry. Quarterback Sorsby currently averages 265 passing yards per game, a statistic that doesn’t help the Iowa State secondary. Last week, Kansas quarterback Jalon Daniels put up 295 yards against Iowa State.
The other issue is Iowa State’s offense. The first down play calling has most frequently been run plays that opposing defenses continue to stop.
With this in mind, Iowa State has become one of the most predictable first-down offenses in the country. If offensive coordinator Taylor Mouser doesn’t change up calls on first down, expect Iowa State to have issues getting the offense in tempo during the game.
With that in mind, expect this game to remain close down to the wire. Iowa State as a whole has shown plenty of weakness that opposing teams like Texas Tech and Kansas have finally figured out how to exploit. I’m predicting Cincinnati not only to cover the spread but to win this game on a last-second field goal.
Final score prediction: Cincinnati 23, Iowa State 21
