Marner: Don’t fault freshmen for Iowa State’s struggles
January 28, 2018
Look, I get it.
Iowa State’s had some bad losses this year. Like, really bad.
Losing at home to Milwaukee by 18? Yikes.
How about that 23-point beatdown at Hilton against Tennessee, which was Iowa State’s worst-ever offensive performance inside Hilton Coliseum?
And what makes matters worse is that all this is happening at home. Senior guard Donovan Jackson summed it up nicely after the loss to Tennessee.
“We’re disrespecting Hilton,” he said.
From 2012-13 through last season (five full seasons) Iowa State lost a grand total of eight home games. This year the Cyclones have already dropped four at Hilton, three of them by double-digits.
Simply put, I’m not going to blame anyone for bailing on this season. When one of the nation’s toughest road environments becomes a relatively easy win, there’s a problem.
But this is exactly how young teams play, and Iowa State’s youth has been the key to what success the Cyclones have had. Steve Prohm is using freshmen in big roles. Sometimes they play like freshmen.
When freshman guard Lindell Wigginton and redshirt freshman forward Cameron Lard play well, Iowa State typically wins.
They combined for 41 points against Baylor — largely due to Wigginton’s career-high 30 — along with 12 rebounds, six blocks, four assists and four steals.
And when Iowa State gave Kansas a run for its money in Lawrence? Wigginton and Lard posted 42 points, 12 rebounds, three steals and a block.
On the flip side, when the two do poorly, Iowa State looks like… well, it looks like a team being led by freshmen.
It’s no coincidence that Iowa State’s two losses to begin the season, both by 15 points or more, came before Lard made his debut.
And take a look at the rest of Iowa State’s losses this year.
Wigginton and Lard combined for 18 points (6-of-16 shooting) against Oklahoma State in an overtime loss. Even with a career-high 30 points from Donovan Jackson, Iowa State couldn’t pull off the win. That’s how important a pair of freshmen have become for Iowa State.
Take a look at these numbers.
Wigginton’s numbers are wayyyy up in Iowa State’s wins. His 3-point shooting suffers drastically in losses. In fact, his rebounds, assists, steals and turnovers per game are all better in wins than losses. Wigginton also fouls less often in wins, which may help his numbers.
Wigginton plays well: Iowa State wins. Wigginton plays poorly: Iowa State loses.
For Lard, it’s similar. His field goal percentage jumps to an absurd 67.5 percent in Iowa State’s wins, and his free throw shooting makes a jump as well.
Lard’s differences aren’t as dramatic as Wigginton’s since Lard played a very limited role early in the season. He came off the bench for his first 11 games unlike Wigginton, who has started every game of his short career.
And yes, I understand that a lot of this sounds very obvious, like a self-fulfilling prophecy. Logically, when two of Iowa State’s starters play better, the team plays better. Duh. That’s not exactly earth-shattering news.
But here’s the thing: Iowa State’s results don’t seem to depend on the rest of the starters the same way.
Here are the splits for Donovan Jackson. Jackson, of course, is known for his ability as a 3-point shooter.
When Iowa State loses, his 3-point shooting percentage is… better?
His rebounding and assist numbers are roughly the same regardless of wins and losses, but they’re slightly better when Iowa State falls short.
If Jackson’s role as a sharpshooter is so important to Iowa State’s success, why is Iowa State winning games when he plays worse?
How about Nick Weiler-Babb, Iowa State’s do-it-all point guard?
His bright spots often coincide with Iowa State’s bright spots, similar to Lard and Wigginton. His rebounding and assist numbers goes up in wins, and his turnover numbers go down.
But his production didn’t help in Iowa State’s loss at Missouri. His four-point, five-rebound, five-turnover game against Alcorn State didn’t deter the Cyclones from running away with a victory.
Iowa State didn’t need a monster night from Weiler-Babb to give Kansas all it could handle — Weiler-Babb had a solid all-around game, but finished fourth on the team in scoring that night with 13 points (5-of-12 shooting).
Weiler-Babb is important, especially as a distributor on offense, but Iowa State doesn’t rely on him to dominate like it relies on the freshmen.
Now, let’s look at Lard’s frontcourt mate, Solomon Young. Young has perhaps the most telling story among the starters.
Ignoring his minuscule 3-point shooting sample size, which is apparently poor in any situation, Young’s shooting numbers drop off in wins. His free throw shooting is better in losses, and he scores more points as a whole when the team loses (7.3 points per game in losses, 5.9 points per game in wins).
The answer for this is simple.
Iowa State doesn’t have another Lindell Wigginton, nor does it have another Cameron Lard. Their production is irreplaceable. When those two are on their games, Iowa State can play with some of the best teams in the nation.
When one — or both — play poorly? Even career-high performances from other players on the team can’t save the Cyclones.
When Jackson is off, like against Baylor, other players can step in. Four other Cyclones hit 3-pointers in that game, led by Wigginton’s 5-for-10 performance.
But they can’t replace Wigginton’s ability to draw fouls, hit contested shots in the lane or shoulder the offensive burden. Nor can they replace Lard’s activity on the offensive glass, rim protection or pure athleticism in the post.
And since Iowa State relies so heavily on two freshmen, one of which has made fewer than 10 career starts at the college level, it’s no surprise that Iowa State has had inconsistent results.
Going forward, those two are the key. Jackson’s shooting and Weiler-Babb’s all-around production obviously help the team, but Wigginton and Lard are the driving forces for the Cyclones. As those two get better with experience, the team as a whole will get better, too.