Breaking down the Iowa State football schedule, part three of three

Iowa State freshman David Montgomery breaks free for a big gain in the first half against West Virginia.

Aaron Marner

Iowa State’s final four games of the 2017 season will be much different than the 2016 season.

The final month of the 2016 season featured three home games and one game on the road, in contrast to one home game and three road games in November 2017.

With three of the final four games on the road to end the season, including two straight away games in the final two weeks, Iowa State will need to build some momentum ahead of November if a bowl game is the goal.

The good news for Iowa State’s bowl chances is that Iowa State played close games with three of the four November opponents it will face in 2017. In 2016, Iowa State lost to all four of its 2017 November opponents, but only one game was decided by more than seven points.

The first November game — at West Virginia — will likely be the toughest of the month. West Virginia dismantled Iowa State 49-19 last season, thanks to a second half in which the Mountaineers outscored Iowa State 28-3.

West Virginia has won the last three matchups with Iowa State and should be competing near the top of the Big 12 in 2017, making this matchup a tough one for the Cyclones.

Oklahoma State will travel to Jack Trice Stadium for game No. 10. Oklahoma State has won five in a row dating back to 2012. The last time Iowa State beat the Cowboys was also a November game at Jack Trice Stadium, when the Cyclones knocked off then-No. 2 Oklahoma State in double overtime.

Each of the last two games between these teams have been close, however. Year two of the Matt Campbell era may be the time Iowa State breaks through.

The penultimate regular season game of Iowa State’s season is November 18 at Baylor.

Since a 71-7 epic beatdown of Iowa State in 2013, Baylor has won every game in the series. The margin of victory has gotten slimmer and slimmer each season, however, resulting in last season’s 45-42 shootout.

This year, with Baylor on its third head coach in three years, Iowa State may be able to pull off a road upset. Iowa State hasn’t won at Baylor since a 26-25 victory in 2004. Both programs are three head coaches removed from that game, however, so Iowa State will have to reverse some history if it is to knock off Baylor.

The final game of the season is November 25 at Kansas State. Kansas State currently owns a nine-game winning streak in the series. Amazingly, only one of those nine games was decided by more than one possession. The past three games have been decided by a total of 12 points.

The Cyclones have been so close to breaking through for a victory over Kansas State for years. To do that in 2017, Iowa State can’t fall behind by 21 points like it did in the 2016 matchup.

Kansas State gained 95 fewer yards than Iowa State last year, but had fewer penalty yards and won the turnover battle. To beat the Wildcats, Iowa State can’t waste chances with the ball. Long drives need to end in points.

Iowa State capitalized on a favorable November schedule last year, grabbing two wins in the final three games to end the season on a positive note. That task will be tougher in 2017, but the Cyclones are built to compete with every team at the end of the schedule. Winning one extra game in November may be the difference between going bowling and watching from home.