Breaking down the Iowa State football schedule, part two of three

Aaron Marner

In sports, a lot is said about “midseason form.”

Early in the season, returning players may be rusty and newcomers are inexperienced. Late in the season, guys are worn out and injuries can pile up.

Basically, the idea is that players and teams find their stride and play their best during the middle of the season.

For Iowa State football, the middle of last season was tough to pin down.

At first glance, the 0-4 record in the month of October looks terrible. But when digging deeper, it’s clear that Iowa State was close to pulling through in October. October featured some gut-wrenching losses for Iowa State.

A three-point home loss to Baylor in which the Cyclones led by as many as 14 in the fourth quarter; a seven-point loss the next week at Oklahoma State in which Iowa State led by 17 points with 18 minutes to go in the game; and finally, a five-point home loss to Kansas State where Iowa State nearly completed a 21-point comeback.

October 2016 showed potential, but also showed inexperience. The inability to hold onto a late lead cost Iowa State two games in two weeks, yet those games also showed that Iowa State can compete with the best of the Big 12 when it plays at a high level.

October 2017 will be a critical month for Iowa State yet again. The month features two home games and two more on the road, all against Big 12 opponents.

October 7 at Oklahoma will likely be the toughest game on the schedule all season. Iowa State holds an all-time record of five wins, two ties, and 74 losses against the Sooners. None of Iowa State’s players were alive the last time Iowa State beat Oklahoma (1990).

The next week against Kansas will be one of the more winnable games on the schedule. Iowa State knocked off Kansas on the road last year, and should be favored to win at home in 2017.

Last year, the Cyclone offense picked Kansas apart to the tune of 260 rushing yards (5.2 per carry) and 220 passing yards (21-30, two touchdowns, one interception). If Iowa State repeats that 480-yard offensive performance, it will have a great shot at picking up another win.

October 21 at Texas Tech will be a revenge game for the Red Raiders. Last year, Iowa State lit up Texas Tech to the tune of 66 points. It was the most points Iowa State had ever scored in a conference game.

Texas Tech loses its star quarterback, Patrick Mahomes, to the NFL, but the high-powered offense will still be dangerous. Iowa State’s defense will have to force turnovers or three-and-outs to give the offense a chance to catch its breath.

The final game of the October schedule for Iowa State is the homecoming game versus TCU.

Last year’s game with TCU was an odd one. It was played in week three, right in the middle of non-conference season for most teams. Iowa State fell on the road, 41-20.

The Cyclones haven’t been competitive with TCU in recent years. The last three games have been decided by 52, 24, and 21 points, all in TCU’s favor.

To reverse that trend, Iowa State will have to defend the run game better than last year. TCU gained 6.2 yards per carry for a total of 229 yards last season, and found the endzone four times on the ground.

Receiver Allen Lazard will also need to get more involved. He was held to just one catch for eight yards against TCU in 2016. Thanks to an improved receiving corps, Lazard may see more single coverage than last year, but it’s up to him and the rest of the offense to make plays that didn’t happen last year against TCU.

If Iowa State can scrape out two wins in October, a bowl game could still be on the horizon. A 1-3 record or a repeat of last year’s 0-4 October would end any hope of postseason play.