Now that the results are official — Ted Cruz is the winner of the Republican Caucus and Hillary Clinton narrowly won the Democratic Caucus — Iowa State political experts are weighing in on the race and its impact through the next primary states.

Mack Shelley, university professor of political science, and Dianne Bystrom, director of the Carrie Chapman Catt Center, took part in a forum Tuesday afternoon at the Memorial Union, where they offered their perspective on several different aspects of the race. David Andersen, assistant professor of political science, moderated the forum while offering a few comments.

Razor thin margin in the Democratic race

The Republican race was called early, and several percentage points separated winner Cruz and second place finisher Donald Trump. On the Democratic side, only a few single delegates separated Clinton and Bernie Sanders.

As of noon Tuesday, the Iowa Democratic Party said 100 percent of precincts had been counted, and Clinton held a slim lead with 700.59 state delegate equivalents; Sanders had 696.82. 

“The polling on the Democratic side was all over the place,” Bystrom said. “The polling was telling us it was going to be a very close race and it turned out to be a very close race.”

Bystrom said she had predicted the race in media interviews during the past few days, but she thought it would “be a few points” between Clinton and Sanders.

Martin O’Malley, who decided to drop out of the Democratic race, failed to meet the 15 percent viability in most precincts. He ended up with 7.61 state delegate equivalents. 

Rubio has momentum after strong finish

Another noteworthy finish was Marco Rubio’s performance on the Republican side. Rubio, currently a senator from Florida, came within just one point of Trump in the final results — much higher than polling showed him coming into the race.

“I think, clearly, Rubio has a lot of momentum coming out of this,” Shelley said. “He finished relatively strong in third — and that does not help Trump at all.”

Rubio took criticism early on from Iowans over not spending enough time in the state, but he did make a surge in the state toward the end with a lot of campaign events across the state.

“I think Rubio’s success and Cruz’s success — and Trump’s failure — can attest to the role of boots on the ground,” Shelley said. “Organization, organization, organization — classic retail politics — sort of won out over Trump’s use of mass media and huge events.” 

Bystrom noted that Rubio grabbed a lot of support among voters who had not made up their mind completely going into the final days. Several entrance polls conducted by news organizations showed Rubio getting upward of a third of undecided votes leading into the night.

Bystrom attended an event Rubio hosted at Iowa State on Saturday and said she talked to some voters who were currently supporting establishment candidates such as Jeb Bush, Chris Christie and John Kasich, but decided to strategically back Rubio so he could possibly end up ahead of Trump or Cruz.

Rubio’s Iowa surge included two events at Iowa State during the final 10 days of campaigning.

“He came here a lot the last eight days, and I think what happened is [a lot of people] were making up their minds in the last few days when he was here,” Bystrom said.

Rubio has sort of been relegated to the establishment “lane” of the race, the experts agreed, and it would really take Bush, Christie and Kasich getting beat big for them to drop out. 

Retail politics still matter

While candidates like Trump have seen huge surges in poll numbers after lots of media appearances and coverage, the experts agreed that retail politics still play a large role in the race.

Cruz had a superb organization on the ground, and along with a higher turnout from evangelical voters, Cruz was able to beat Trump, Bystrom and Shelley said. 

“I bet on Cruz based on the fact he had a strong organization,” Bystrom said. “It also underscores that retail politics still matters because Cruz ran a more traditional campaign.”

Only two drop out, but more probably coming

Along with O’Malley, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Hucakbee was the only Republican candidate to drop out of the race Monday night.

Shelley said to expect more dropouts, especially after New Hampshire — the next state to vote Tuesday. 

“There will probably be some other casualties in the near future,” Shelley said. “Probably the ones that are alive and kicking, but only in single digits. They’re not going to survive New Hampshire or anywhere beyond that.”

Bystrom said while she is surprised that someone like Santorum did not drop out, there is really no incentive money-wise as some candidates have Super PACs supporting them. 

Shelley also said that if candidates “are not on the radar” by Super Tuesday, which is March 1 and the day the greatest number of states hold primaries, they are probably finished in their pursuit for the nomination. 

New Hampshire is next

All eyes are now on Tuesday and beyond. New Hampshire holds the first-in-the-nation primary next week, and South Carolina and Nevada follow before Super Tuesday on March. 1. 

Along with Rubio having some momentum after a strong performance in Iowa, Trump is still ahead and has the best shot at a victory, Shelley said. An average of polls from Real Clear Politics shows Trump with over a 20-point lead in the state.

On the Democratic side, Sanders also holds a lead and will likely come out on top despite Clinton’s win in Iowa. The RCP average shows Sanders up by more than 18 points.

“I think Hillary’s going to get a little bit of momentum,” Shelley said. “She can legitimately say she won, but I imagine Sanders will end up winning.”