What the heck is going on with the pitching matchups this year in the playoffs, and more specifically, the World Series? What is it with a rookie beating Orel Hershiser, one of the greatest pitchers ever in postseason, badly in game one? Then the Indians came back with Chad Ogea (pronounced O.J. which reminds me of events I’d rather forget) and he beats Kevin Brown, another great pitcher.

According to owners and managers, pitching and defense win championships. But look at this year’s playoffs: the Mariners lost in the first round despite sending Randy Johnson, Jeff Fassero and Jamie Moyer to the mound. And the Yankees lost, even though they were favored in every pitching matchup and had the best bullpen.

The championship series were even weirder. How can you explain the Braves losing when they have the best four-man rotation in baseball with Denny Neagle, a 20-game winner, being their 4th starter? Heck, they even outscored the Marlins during the series. Ryan Klesko said it best, “We outpitched them, outhit them, but didn’t outplay them.”

In the A.L. you had a similar situation. The Orioles outscored the Indians and had Mike Mussina pitch two of the greatest postseason games, but still lost. Why? God knows, but I can’t explain it. Destiny, maybe?

Or perhaps it’s not just pitching and defense. Maybe it’s as Earl Weaver said, “Pitching, defense and the three-run homer.” Aye, the long ball won pennant chasing games this season. And no long ball was more important than the game-winning grand slam by the Marlins’ Bobby Bonilla or the Giants’ Brian Johnson couple of solo shots that doomed the Dodgers’ postseason chances.

The playoffs have had clutch home runs as well. The Yankees went back-to-back-to-back in game one of the division series; Sandy Alomar tied game four of the same series with a two-run shot off Mariano Rivera; Marquis Grissom crushed Armando Benitez with a three-run jack to give the Tribe the lead in game two of the ALCS; and who can forget little Tony Fernandez clapping his hands after going long distance off Benitez in game six to end a scoreless tie in the 11th?

Both World Series games have turned on home runs, with Alou hitting a three-run bomber, followed by Charles Johnson’s titanic blast in game one and Sandy Alomar rocketing one over the wall in game two.

Of course, pitching and defense have played a part. The Indians could not have beaten Mussina twice without great pitching, and the same goes for the Marlins, who pulled out victories in the NLCS against Atlanta’s Cy Young award-winning rotation. The Indians are strong up the middle, behind the plate and at third. The team set league records for double plays in the LCS, and the Marlins have sparkled with the glove.

But I want to add one more thing to the formulas: luck. The Marlins had it in game one, with five unearned runs against Maddux. The Indians have had more than their share throughout the playoffs, with Fernandez’s game-winning homer in game two, the steal of home on a botched squeeze bunt in game three, a game-winning double from their catcher in game four and their lead-off hitter hitting his first home run in 36 postseason at-bats.

So here’s the winning formula; “Pitching, defense, three-run home runs, and luck.” Oh, and did I forget to mention a free-spending owner?

Jayadev Athreya is a sophomore in mathematics from Ames.