I hope I do not spoil any readers Monday morning by discussing Annie Jacobsen’s masterful work “Nuclear War: A Scenario.” While reading like a novel, “Nuclear War” deftly walks us through a carefully researched scenario of what would happen should the United States ever go to nuclear war.

There is so much information in the book that it is not my ambition to outline, step-by-step, how the scenario unfolds in its entirety. Instead, I want to cover generally how the scenario would go to provide readers with context prior to reading the book.

First, it is important to understand the basic concepts of our policy regarding nuclear war. The concept of MAD (Mutual Assured Destruction) and the principle of deterrence are what, broadly speaking, keep us “safe” from the nuclear threat. The idea behind them is that “a nuclear attack by one superpower would be met with an overwhelming nuclear counterattack such that both the attacker and the defender would be annihilated.” Therefore, if a country cares about surviving a nuclear war, it’s best not to start one.  

Jacobsen exhaustively recounts, through numerous interviews and scrupulous research, the sheer destruction a nuclear war would cause. It is no exaggeration to suggest that it would be the end of humanity – especially if a nuclear conflict resulted in each nuclear-armed country unleashing its full stockpile of weapons. Though it sounds apocalyptic–some might say alarmist–all of this is very possible. 

Jacobsen starts from the first step–a warning that an ICBM has been launched. The U.S. gets a signal from its highly advanced satellite communications systems that North Korea has launched an ICBM, and after complex calculations, they predict its trajectory. It’s heading for Washington, D.C., our nation’s capital. The U.S. is now threatened with a “decapitation event,” where the intention is to cut the head of a nation clean off. 

Avoiding what Jacobsen calls a “decapitation event” is necessary for the targeted nation, just as it is critical for the targeted nation to decapitate the aggressor before they can launch any more atomic weapons. Hence what is referred to as the “Launch on Warning” policy. Jacobsen conducted an interview with former Secretary of Defense William Perry, where Perry describes the almost-comical simplicity behind the policy: “Once we are warned of a nuclear attack, we prepare to launch,” he says, “we do not wait.” 

Keep in mind the time frame. Within a second of launching the U.S. detects the missile and reports it to U.S. command. Then, only minutes later, the U.S. could respond, nearly emptying its nuclear stockpile so as to decapitate the aggressor’s leadership before they could attack anymore. This is real life. This is the policy.

Jacobsen talks about the consequences of a retaliating strike. As the U.S. launches its missiles against North Korea, striking the country in every spot imaginable, it inevitably pulls China in, as millions of Chinese civilians living on the China-North Korea border will die due to the blast and radiation poisoning. More urgently, Russia has not yet been notified, and the U.S. can’t get the Russian president on the phone. However, Russian defense systems (which are notoriously unreliable) detect what looks like thousands of nuclear warheads heading toward Russia (as our missiles also carry decoy warheads to confuse enemy missile defense systems). Similar to the U.S., Russia doesn’t wait to absorb an attack. In retaliation to a perceived nuclear attack by the U.S., Russia unleashes its more than 1,600 nuclear bombs that are always on standby, ready to decapitate. Oh, and if you thought the U.S. could simply shoot down these warheads, think again. Jacobsen writes: 

“As of early 2024, Russia has 1,674 deployed nuclear weapons, the majority of which are on ready-for-launch status. (China has a stockpile of more than 500; Pakistan and India each have around 165; North Korea has around 50). With forty-four [defense] missiles in its entire inventory, the U.S. interceptor program is mostly for show.” 

Forty-four missiles is all we have to defend ourselves from the end of the world. Given the stockpile of nuclear weapons other nations have, we are completely helpless. 

It is almost difficult to comprehend the destruction a scenario like the one Jacobsen describes would cause. It is even more difficult to understand how such a basic issue as miscommunication could erase the world, effectively ending civilization as we know it. Even more frightening is that all it takes is one madman. One person who wants to see the world burn. Après moi, le déluge.

Not only is Jacobsen’s book a call to action with regard to the selection of political leadership, I also believe it also serves as evidence for why disarmament is necessary. It will never happen, but that means humanity will forever live with the grim threat of nuclear war looming large over our heads.

Reading this book is an educational experience on its own. We learn more about a notoriously murky subject of nuclear weapons and how our government would go about deploying them. Crucially, Jacobsen reveals how insane the plans for a general nuclear war are, and why we must avoid it at all costs. 

No one can win a nuclear war, especially with bombs that are thousands of times stronger than the ones dropped on Japan in August of 1945. There is nothing to be gained. 

As Jacobsen writes:

“Everyone loses.”

“Everyone.”

This book is undoubtedly one of the eminent non-fiction books of 2024. It can hold the attention of fiction and nonfiction readers alike, and should be required reading. Buy it, read it, and be amazed at the world we face. 

Rating: 8.5/10