EDITORIAL: Polls, odds mean little in the end
August 20, 2012
A sea of cardinal and gold rushed onto the field at Jack Trice Stadium on Nov. 18 to the surprise of most of the nation and to the dismay of oddsmakers, who had pegged Oklahoma State as a 27-point favorite against Iowa State.
On paper, the Cowboys had Brandon Weeden at quarterback, who at the time was a potential Heisman candidate. They also had eventual first-round NFL Draft selection Justin Blackmon at wide receiver. While 10-0 and ranked No. 2 in the nation, Oklahoma State was not able avoid defeat by the heavy underdog Cyclones in double overtime.
After all, there is pretty good reason they say games cannot be played on paper. Sports can be pretty unpredictable, but that does not stop anybody from making the attempt to solve the puzzles before they unfold.
Oddsmakers have the ISU football team at an over/under of 4.5 victories for the 2012 season. In coach Paul Rhoads’ three seasons, the Cyclones have often been predicted to win less than a handful of games by the many who make the predictions.
While far from a powerhouse, Iowa State has won seven, five and six games respectively since Rhoads arrived, and they have advanced to two bowl games. For those in the guessing game, the team has been hard to predict.
But trying to make those predictions, through polls and weekly picks, is part of what makes sports, and football especially, so interesting. Fans and writers alike cannot stay away from seeing what others have to say and they crave seeing who tops each weekly list voted upon by writers and coaches.
This season’s Associated Press Top-25 preseason poll has ranked Southern California at No. 1 to start the season. But as projections often go, that may not mean much.
Last season writers placed high hopes in Oklahoma, placing the Sooners at No. 1 in the preseason poll. Oklahoma would come in at No. 16 when all was said and done. In fact, out of the 25 teams in the initial poll last season, seven were nowhere to be found when the season was said and done.
During the past decade, only one time — in 2004 with USC — has a team been named No. 1 in the top-25 preseason poll and found itself still at the top in the final poll at season’s end.
With what has been called one of the toughest schedules in the nation — they have even been named underdogs against Tulsa — Iowa State in the eyes of many will not go over that 4.5-win mark placed by oddsmakers.
In 2009 the Cyclones weren’t supposed to beat Nebraska, but who could account for eight Cornhusker turnovers? The next season in 2010 Iowa State wasn’t supposed to beat Texas, but the Cyclone defense kept the Longhorns to just six points through three quarters.
And last season, Oklahoma State should have run away with a Friday night, nationally televised victory to move one step closer to the national championship.
But there is always chance: chance of injury, chance of poor play, chance of weather and chance of maybe, just maybe the team rising above expectations to a new level.
Sports are not simple to guess. We can put as much attention into preseason polls, total victory odds and game-by-game picks all we want, but in the end we are limited to guessing.
Sometimes we just have to wait to see what happens on the field. And who knows, that might have fans storming the field in a game that was supposed to send fans home after halftime.